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$107,351,958

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$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

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FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
polymarket

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Volume:
$81,406

Candidate A

 - Polymarket

Candidate A - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 3:18 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Candidate A

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Elijah Manley

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dale Holness

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rudy Moise

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,584
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Luther Campbell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mark Douglas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Maisha Williams

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination to represent Florida's 20th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidate A currently holds a 65.0% probability of winning the nomination on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, with a fallback to "Other" if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026. Watch the August 18, 2026 Democratic primary election for the definitive outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and fundraising data that polls may lag. While polls capture voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect the collective financial commitment of participants betting on actual outcomes. For the FL-20 Democratic primary, comparing Polymarket odds to recent polling averages reveals whether the market is pricing in factors polls haven't yet captured, such as endorsements, debate performance, or shifts in voter registration. This gap can signal where informed traders see opportunity or risk.

The FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner market resolves on Aug 18, 2026, following the official Democratic primary election date for Florida's 20th congressional district. Resolution is determined by which candidate receives the Democratic Party's official nomination for the general election. The market will settle based on authoritative sources confirming the primary winner. Until that date, odds will continue to shift as new information emerges, campaigns intensify, and voter preferences evolve. Traders should monitor primary-related news and campaign developments closely in the weeks leading up to resolution.

Several catalysts could shift odds for the FL-20 Democratic primary. Major endorsements from local or national Democratic figures often move markets sharply. Debate performances, campaign spending reports, and media coverage of candidate gaffes or achievements can trigger repricing. Voter registration data and early voting turnout in the district will signal which candidate is building momentum. Polling releases, especially from credible local pollsters, frequently cause traders to rebalance positions. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries would dramatically alter the race dynamics. Finally, grassroots organizing efforts and get-out-the-vote campaigns in the final weeks before Aug 18, 2026 may reveal shifting voter sentiment that traders incorporate into prices.