TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 5%
- Kalshi
At least 5% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 26, 8:53 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific candidate in a party primary election, focusing on whether their share of the vote meets various threshold percentages. The outcome depends solely on the officially certified results, reflecting the candidate's electoral support among registered voters in that party's primary contest.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Keith Gross in the FL-02 Republican primary, calculated as (total votes for Gross ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market has a different threshold requirement (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, or 35%), and resolves to Yes only if Gross's certified vote share falls within or exceeds that specific range. Resolution relies exclusively on official, certified results—preliminary counts, write-in votes (if certified), and any post-certification recounts are considered, with the most recent certified percentage used if changes occur before market expiration. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If the election is canceled, postponed beyond the market expiration date, or no certified results are available by that deadline, all markets resolve to No. Multiple voting rounds (e.g., ranked-choice voting) use the specified round or the first round if unspecified.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader expectations for Keith Gross’s share of the vote, which may diverge from polling averages. Prediction markets often price in nuances such as campaign momentum, fundraising strength, and voter turnout dynamics that traditional polls may miss. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, this market incorporates real-time betting activity and can signal shifts in confidence as the primary approaches. Traders react to emerging data points faster than pollsters can survey voters, potentially creating gaps between the two measures.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous bidding, with the current top outcome reflecting the most likely percentage range for Keith Gross’s vote share based on available information. The market’s price fluctuates with new developments such as debate performance, endorsements, and local media coverage. Volume of $21,843 indicates trader interest, while 24-hour volume of $0 shows recent activity levels. This pricing mechanism allows participants to express their expectations dynamically as the election cycle evolves.
This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The percentage of votes officially assigned to Keith Gross will determine the final settlement, based on authoritative news sources and electoral data releases.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 18, 2027. Key developments include candidate debates, major endorsements, campaign financing announcements, and local polling updates that reveal changes in voter preferences. Media coverage highlighting controversies or policy positions may also influence trader sentiment. As the primary date approaches, early voting results and voter registration trends could cause rapid price adjustments. Any unexpected events—such as scandals or logistical changes—might dramatically alter expectations and move this market in the final weeks.
