TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2
kalshi

Figma paid customers >$100k arr in Q2

Volume:
$4,706

above 1600

 - Kalshi

above 1600 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 5:01 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

above 1600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,431
N/A
N/A
$1,196
2d 20h 57m
Yes
kalshi

above 1625

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$965
N/A
N/A
$827
2d 20h 57m
Yes
kalshi

above 1575

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$140
2d 20h 57m
Yes
kalshi

above 1550

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
2d 20h 57m
Yes
kalshi

above 1675

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,585
N/A
N/A
$949
2d 20h 57m
No
kalshi

above 1650

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$346
2d 20h 57m
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Figma will report more than 1,550 paid customers generating at least $100k in annual recurring revenue during Q2 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 95.5%. Resolution will be determined by Figma's official Q2 2026 earnings report, which is expected around October 2, 2026. Watch for Figma's quarterly earnings announcement in early October 2026 to see whether the company's high-value customer base meets this threshold.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by Figma, Inc.'s official Q2 2026 financial reporting. The event uses a tiered threshold structure where each rule establishes a specific customer count milestone (1550, 1575, 1600, 1625, 1650, or 1675 paid customers at $100k ARR or above). If the company reports exceeding any of these thresholds in Q2 2026, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The highest threshold achieved determines the final resolution level.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether Figma will report more than 1600 paid customers with annual recurring revenue above $100,000 in Q2 2026. It displays the current probability that this threshold will be exceeded, along with 24-hour trading volume of $2,175 and cumulative group volume of $4,706. The interface shows live price movements as traders update their positions based on new information about Figma's enterprise customer base and revenue metrics.

The market resolves on Oct 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by Figma's official disclosure of paid customers with annual recurring revenue exceeding $100,000 during Q2 2026. This data typically appears in quarterly earnings reports, investor presentations, or SEC filings. The outcome hinges on whether the reported figure exceeds 1600 customers. Any ambiguity in Figma's disclosure methodology or customer classification may affect final settlement.

Key catalysts include Figma's quarterly earnings announcements, which may provide early signals about enterprise customer trends and ARR growth. Product launches, pricing changes, or new enterprise features could accelerate high-value customer acquisition. Competitive announcements from design and collaboration platforms may influence Figma's market position. Macroeconomic conditions affecting enterprise software spending, customer churn rates, and upsell success will also impact the likelihood of reaching 1600 customers. Analyst upgrades or downgrades and insider commentary on sales momentum can shift market expectations.