TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Fed median dot plot in June 2026
kalshi

Fed median dot plot in June 2026

Volume:
$17,073

Above 3.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 1:55 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,413
N/A
N/A
$3,557
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,407
N/A
N/A
$4,438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,051
N/A
N/A
$1,492
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,092
N/A
N/A
$1,065
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$681
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$193
N/A
N/A
$88
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether the Federal Reserve's median interest rate projection for 2026 will exceed 3.6% when officials release their economic forecasts. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official dot plot median released by the Federal Reserve at its June 17, 2026 meeting. Watch the Fed's June 17, 2026 policy announcement for the median dot plot figure, which will directly settle this contract.

Kalshi

This event tracks whether the median dot plot projection for the federal funds rate in 2026, released at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, exceeds specific threshold levels. The outcomes are ordered from lowest to highest thresholds: above 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, and 3.7%. Each outcome is mutually exclusive; the market resolves to the highest threshold that the median projection exceeds.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks live odds and trading activity for the Fed's median interest rate projection in its June 2026 dot plot release. On Kalshi, you can monitor the current implied probability of the top outcome, real-time price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $6,607. The dashboard displays the cumulative group volume of $17,073 across all tracked positions, helping traders gauge market conviction and liquidity. Historical price charts show how market expectations have evolved as economic data and Fed communications shift, providing context for current odds and positioning.

The market resolves on Jun 17, 2026, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's June 2026 policy decision and dot plot release. The outcome is determined by the median federal funds rate projection published in the official dot plot summary. Resolution occurs once the Fed's official communication is released and verified, settling all positions based on the actual median value disclosed. Traders should monitor the Fed's calendar and any schedule changes, as the exact timing of the announcement could shift the resolution window.

Major economic data releases—including inflation reports (CPI, PCE), employment figures, and GDP growth—will drive market repricing of Fed rate expectations. Geopolitical shocks, financial stability concerns, or credit market stress could accelerate or delay rate cuts. Fed communications, including speeches by Chair Powell and other governors, will signal policy direction and influence trader positioning. Energy prices, wage growth, and housing data also shape inflation expectations and thus the median dot plot projection. Market volatility around Treasury yields and equity valuations may prompt traders to adjust their bets on the Fed's June 2026 guidance.