What will the Fed funds rate be at the end of 2036?

Currently, this market implies a 93.0% probability that the upper bound of the target range will be above 2.25% by December 31, 2036. This contrasts with many traditional analyst forecasts, which often reflect a range of scenarios based on economic growth, inflation trends, and policy signaling. The prediction market price synthesizes a broad set of bets and may diverge from consensus if new economic data or Fed communication shifts expectations.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively buy and sell contracts representing the two possible outcomes — above or below 2.25% — which determines the current implied probability. The price reflects the most recent trading activity and order book depth, adjusting continuously as new information about inflation, growth, or Fed policy emerges. Market depth and liquidity can influence how quickly prices respond to major economic releases.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2037, with the outcome confirmed once the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is officially in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee that day will determine which contract settles.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve meetings and press conferences, especially those that signal changes in the path of policy, major inflation reports such as the CPI and PCE, employment data releases, and unexpected economic shocks like geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions. Each new data point will be interpreted by traders for its implications for long-term monetary policy stance.