TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed funds rate at end of 2027
kalshi

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Jul 29, 2026, 2:00 PM EST - Jan 8, 2028, 1:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$133,817
Volume 24h:
$3,012
86%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$61,236
0.8%

Above 1.75%

 - Kalshi

Above 1.75% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2028

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 0.84% Illiquid market 438 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.75%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 7¢
7¢
N/A
$113
0%
0%
$26
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 1.00%

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$612
0%
0%
$361
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 2.50%

Trade
98%
15%
Yes 98¢No 15¢
13¢
N/A
$1,312
9%
9%
$712
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 1.25%

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$2,589
0%
0%
$858
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 3.00%

Trade
94%
9%
Yes 95¢No 15¢
10¢
N/A
$2,548
18%
18%
$1,289
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 2.00%

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 10¢
10¢
N/A
$233
0%
0%
$164
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 2.75%

Trade
93%
6%
Yes 94¢No 10¢
4¢
N/A
$5,584
21%
21%
$2,083
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 4.00%

Trade
89%
3%
Yes 96¢No 10¢
6¢
N/A
$22,138
0.03%
9%
$8,956
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 3.50%

Trade
89%
Yes 91¢No 15¢
6¢
N/A
$6,952
0%
0.47%
$5,254
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 3.25%

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 89¢No 15¢
4¢
N/A
$16,471
0.04%
0.5%
$8,352
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 3.75%

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
N/A
$25,800
0%
3%
$13,925
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 4.25%

Trade
64%
Yes 65¢No 36¢
1¢
N/A
$20,329
2%
16%
$6,969
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 5.25%

Trade
33%
Yes 28¢No 89¢
17¢
N/A
$1,631
6%
6%
$1,065
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 4.50%

Trade
28%
Yes 30¢No 73¢
3¢
N/A
$19,714
4%
21%
$7,025
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 4.75%

Trade
23%
5%
Yes 23¢No 81¢
4¢
N/A
$3,472
0.41%
79%
$1,914
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 5.00%

Trade
17%
Yes 28¢No 83¢
11¢
N/A
$1,285
0%
14%
$824
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 5.50%

Trade
7%
Yes 22¢No 96¢
18¢
N/A
$391
26%
26%
$180
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 5.75%

Trade
3%
Yes 15¢No 96¢
11¢
N/A
$356
33%
33%
$179
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 6.00%

Trade
2%
Yes 10¢No 96¢
6¢
N/A
$1,195
30%
42%
$576
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 2.25%

Trade
96%
Yes 100¢No 29¢
29¢
N/A
$895
0%
5%
$468
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above 1.50%

Trade
96%
Yes 100¢No 30¢
30¢
N/A
$196
0%
0%
$55
1y 2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 21

Description

The federal funds rate represents the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to other banks overnight through the federal funds market. This rate is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and can impact economic conditions such as inflation and growth. Predicting the rate's level at a specific future date involves assessing various economic indicators and policy directions.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate target range (or the single target rate, if specified) in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, and published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, exceeds a specified threshold. The thresholds range incrementally from above 1.00% to above 6.00%. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate instead of a range, that rate is used for resolution. The outcome for each market is "Yes" if the relevant threshold is met or exceeded, and "No" otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the 2027 Fed funds rate market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $3,012. This single-venue view shows how traders price expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2027, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent economic data. The dashboard highlights the top outcome probability of 99.0% and total volume of $133,817, giving users insight into current betting patterns without aggregating data from other venues.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks for contract outcomes. The current top outcome reflects collective bets on where the Federal Reserve will set the rate by the end of 2027. Market depth and liquidity influence price discovery, with larger orders moving the odds more significantly. This decentralized pricing mechanism allows rapid adjustments to new economic indicators and Fed communication.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2027 will determine the winning contract. Official Fed statements, monetary policy meetings, and published rate decisions serve as the primary sources for verification, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals that could shift this market include Federal Reserve meeting minutes, updates to inflation metrics such as the CPI and PCE, labor market reports, and statements from key policymakers like the Fed Chair. Unexpected economic shocks — including geopolitical tensions, major financial market volatility, or sudden shifts in consumer spending — may also influence trader sentiment. As Jan 8, 2028 approaches, these data releases will increasingly drive volatility and re-pricing in the market.