TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 4:07 PM EST
Kalshi
The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment by aggregating data points like volatility, momentum, put-to-call ratios, and market breadth into a single numerical value that is categorized. On any given day, this index is updated to reflect prevailing investor attitudes, ranging from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed. Observers use this indicator to gauge whether markets are driven by panic or optimism at specific moments in time.
The event resolves based on the first Fear & Greed Index value update published after 4:00 PM ET on September 11, 2026. If the update categorizes sentiment as Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, or Extreme Greed, the market resolves to Yes. Should no update occur within one week of the specified time, the last available indexed value before that deadline will determine the outcome. This structure ensures a definitive resolution using the most current or most recent sentiment assessment, covering all possible categorical outcomes under the index’s standard classifications.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market offers a dynamic, crowd-sourced view of expected Fear & Greed Index levels. While analysts may publish periodic reports based on models or qualitative assessments, traders adjust positions minute-by-minute in response to new economic data, news, and shifting investor sentiment. This real-time pricing often captures nuances or short-term expectations that may not be reflected in slower-moving expert predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Fear & Greed Index value is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final closing level on that date determines which outcome is settled, based on widely accepted financial data sources. No additional interpretation or judgment is required beyond confirming the published index value.
Key events that could shift this market include major economic indicators like nonfarm payrolls, inflation data, or central bank announcements. Geopolitical developments, sudden market corrections, or significant policy changes may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, high-profile corporate earnings surprises or shifts in investor risk appetite often cause rapid repricing of fear and greed expectations in the lead-up to Sep 18, 2026.