TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment by aggregating data points into classifications from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed. Tracking this index helps investors gauge prevailing mood and potential market turning points. On a specific date, the resolution depends on which sentiment classification is reported after a set time.
The event resolves based on the first Fear & Greed Index value update published after 4:00 PM ET on August 28, 2026. If the update classifies sentiment as Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, or Extreme Greed, the market resolves to Yes. Should no update occur within one week after the specified time, the last available index value before that date will determine the outcome.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the Fear & Greed Index market through continuous bidding and offering. The current implied probability reflects collective trader sentiment about future market conditions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations can occur rapidly in response to real-time economic data, news events, and broader investor sentiment trends. The market’s pricing mechanism captures a dynamic snapshot of expectations, allowing participants to bet on whether the index will indicate fear or greed at the specified date.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final value will be determined by the Fear & Greed Index reading on the specified date, providing a clear, data-driven resolution for all positions held.
Several signals or events could shift this market before Sep 4, 2026. Key economic indicators such as GDP announcements, employment reports, or inflation data often influence investor sentiment. Major geopolitical developments, policy changes from central banks, or unexpected market shocks can also dramatically alter expectations. Additionally, significant movements in major stock indices or bond yields may affect the underlying sentiment captured by the Fear & Greed Index market, driving rapid adjustments in trading activity and odds.