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406,019

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Falealili 1 By-Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Falealili 1 By-Election?

Volume:
$58,072

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai

 - Polymarket

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 20, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 7:16 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Aperila Vaa Tiai

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,739
N/A
N/A
$5,093
1mo 2w 5d
Yes
polymarket

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,542
N/A
N/A
$4,040
1mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,085
N/A
N/A
$2,820
1mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,761
N/A
N/A
$1,974
1mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Alec Latu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,542
N/A
N/A
$1,917
1mo 2w 5d
No
kalshi

Patea

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,226
N/A
N/A
$1,908
1mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$939
N/A
N/A
$828
1mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$685
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person P

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Person Q

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This group forecasts the winner of a by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1, triggered by the nullification of the previous MP's election due to bribery. The election is scheduled for September 18, 2026, and markets will resolve based on the official results reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket offers a more comprehensive set of candidates, including an 'Other' option, while Kalshi only covers a subset of potential winners.Hero tip: If you believe a candidate not listed on Kalshi has a significant chance of winning, focus your trading on Polymarket. Otherwise, Kalshi provides a more focused set of options.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers markets for 28 candidates (A-Z) plus 'Other'. Resolves based on the official winner, with a fallback to 'Other' if no result is known by March 31, 2027. "If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other"."
  • Kalshi: Offers markets for only 7 named candidates. Resolves to 'Yes' if any of those 7 candidates win. "If Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).

Kalshi

If Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Si’a Faaletonu Alec Latu wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laneselota Lameko wins the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Falealili 1 by-election. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $58,072, with $1,291 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of what traders believe will happen, reflecting their collective intelligence. The dashboard tracks the probability of different candidates winning, allowing you to see which outcomes are currently favored by the crowd. It's a dynamic representation of expectations as new information becomes available and traders update their positions.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be a more accurate signal of belief. Polling data can be influenced by biases and self-reporting issues, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be more truthful in their predictions. Discrepancies between polls and this market can highlight areas where public opinion might be misaligned with actual likely outcomes in the Falealili 1 by-election.