TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 4, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for South Korea ETF (EWY) on June 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for South Korea ETF (EWY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for South Korea ETF (EWY) on June 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for South Korea ETF (EWY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If South Korea ETF (EWY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.EWY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.EWY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
On Polymarket, EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 4 is priced as a binary outcome contract where traders buy and sell shares representing either an up or down close on the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price of each outcome reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; a higher share price indicates stronger conviction in that outcome. Polymarket uses an automated market maker model, meaning prices adjust dynamically based on order flow and liquidity. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before Jun 4, 2026, and the final settlement price is determined by the actual closing direction of EWY on that date.
The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether EWY closes above or below its opening price on June 4. Resolution occurs after market close and official price data is confirmed. Traders who held winning shares receive their payout based on the final settlement price. The event is binary, meaning only one outcome will occur and be validated. All positions are settled automatically once the resolution criteria are met and confirmed on Polymarket.
EWY, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF, is sensitive to broad macroeconomic and geopolitical developments affecting Japanese equities and currency markets. Key catalysts include Bank of Japan monetary policy announcements, Japanese economic data releases, US–Japan trade developments, and shifts in the yen exchange rate. Global risk sentiment, equity market volatility, and changes in interest rate expectations can also drive directional moves. Corporate earnings surprises from major Japanese holdings and geopolitical tensions in Asia may create intraday momentum. Traders monitoring these signals ahead of Jun 4, 2026 can adjust positions based on emerging news flow and technical levels.