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EV commodity prices on Sep 16, 2026
kalshi

What will EV commodity prices be?

Volume:
$14,256

Above 1148.52

 - Kalshi

Above 1148.52 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1148.52

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,415
N/A
N/A
$1,415
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1118.52

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$1,135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1128.52

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$1,135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1138.52

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$1,135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1188.52

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$603
N/A
N/A
$528
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1168.52

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$564
N/A
N/A
$564
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1158.52

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$385
N/A
N/A
$385
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1178.52

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
$313
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1258.52

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,114
N/A
N/A
$2,114
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1198.52

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,880
N/A
N/A
$2,618
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1248.52

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1228.52

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$464
N/A
N/A
$417
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1218.52

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1208.52

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1238.52

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks fluctuations in the cost of materials essential for electric vehicle production, reflecting broader economic trends and supply-demand dynamics within the automotive industry. The outcome depends on whether a specific index value exceeds various thresholds by a set date, illustrating how commodity prices can influence market expectations and investment decisions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the Truflation EV Commodity Index value as of September 16, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 1118.52 to 1258.52. If the index is above the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same date and index source, ensuring consistency in the data used to determine outcomes. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of the index reaching various price points, offering a granular view of potential commodity price movements.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the EV commodity prices market tracks the current prices, 24-hour volume of $8,851, and total volume of $14,256. You can also view price history charts to understand how the market has behaved over time. The dashboard provides a clear visual representation of trader sentiment regarding future EV commodity prices. It’s a central hub for monitoring activity and understanding the collective forecast embedded within the market.

Currently, the collective prediction embedded in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While expert opinions often focus on base-case scenarios, this market aggregates diverse viewpoints and allows traders to express their beliefs about potential outcomes, including tail risks. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes identify information not yet reflected in conventional analysis, providing a potentially more accurate or nuanced view of future EV commodity prices. This dynamic makes this market a valuable complement to standard forecasting methods.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Essentially, the price reflects the probability that the outcome will occur. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the cost to buy a contract that pays out $1 if the event occurs, and the market is designed to incentivize accurate predictions by aligning trader incentives with the eventual outcome. This mechanism allows for real-time price discovery and a constantly updated assessment of future EV commodity prices.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the prices of key commodities used in electric vehicle production on September 16, 2026. The specific commodities and their weighting will be defined within the market rules on Kalshi. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on established price data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements regarding EV production targets from leading automakers, breakthroughs in battery technology that impact commodity demand, and geopolitical events affecting the supply chains of critical materials are all potential catalysts. Changes in government regulations related to EV adoption or commodity sourcing could also move the market. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors like inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth will play a role in shaping expectations for EV commodity prices.