TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 19, 11:14 PM EST
Kalshi
The Truflation EV Commodity Index measures prices of key materials used in electric vehicle production. Tracking this index helps gauge cost pressures in the EV supply chain, reflecting broader economic trends and industry health. Movements in the index can signal changes in raw material availability or shifts in global demand.
All markets resolve based on whether the Truflation EV Commodity Index value on August 19, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds, ranging from 1164.35 to 1304.35. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, with a "Yes" outcome if the index closes above that level on the specified date. No alternative resolutions, ties, or partial outcomes are defined; the index must meet or exceed the threshold exactly for resolution.
Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects trader expectations for EV commodity price movements by August 2026. While analyst forecasts may vary, the prediction market aggregates real-time bets and can diverge from traditional equity or commodity research reports, often pricing in risks or scenarios that aren’t yet reflected in mainstream analysis.
This market resolves around Aug 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual state of EV commodity prices as of the specified date, removing any ambiguity for participants.
Several signals or events could shift this market before Aug 27, 2026. Major announcements from leading EV manufacturers about production scaling or supply chain changes may influence expectations. Broader economic shifts, such as changes in commodity trade policies or global inflation trends, could also affect pricing. Additionally, geopolitical developments impacting mining or transportation routes may cause rapid movements in this market as traders adjust their positions.