TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026
Total volume:
$950
Volume 24h:
$181
0%
Liquidity:
$2,115
11%
Open interest:
$338
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks Eurozone (Euro Area 21) GDP growth in Q2 2026 measured year-over-year as a percentage change. Resolution will be based on the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release scheduled for July 30, 2026, using seasonally adjusted data reported to one decimal point precision.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market references Q1 2026 GDP data instead of Q2 2026, creating a fundamental temporal mismatch with the event group definition. Additionally, Kalshi's 15 overlapping binary thresholds collapse into a single outcome, while Polymarket uses properly structured mutually exclusive brackets for Q2 2026.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group—they measure the wrong quarter. Polymarket is the only reliable venue for Q2 2026 Eurozone GDP growth exposure. Monitor the Eurostat release on July 30, 2026, and resolve based on the preliminary flash estimate reported to one decimal place.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All 15 conditions reference Q1 2026 YoY flash GDP and resolve to Yes if the value exceeds -0.6% (the minimum threshold). This makes all conditions logically redundant and measures the wrong quarter. Key quote: 'If Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Eight mutually exclusive bracket questions correctly target Q2 2026 YoY growth based on Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate released July 30, 2026. Brackets cover: <0.0%, 0.0-0.3%, 0.4-0.7%, 0.8-1.1%, 1.2-1.5%, 1.6-1.9%, and >=2.0%. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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