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$103,397,351

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026

Volume:
$62,612

0.8-1.1%

 - Polymarket

0.8-1.1% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 10:14 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.8-1.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$8,976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,533
N/A
N/A
$3,050
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,162
N/A
N/A
$2,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,150
N/A
N/A
$2,150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,657
N/A
N/A
$1,657
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,157
N/A
N/A
$1,157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,150
N/A
N/A
$1,150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.4-0.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,956
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,611
N/A
N/A
$3,607
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,111
N/A
N/A
$2,607
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,612
N/A
N/A
$3,607
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,611
N/A
N/A
$3,607
Settled
No
polymarket

0.0-0.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,676
N/A
N/A
$2,591
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,352
N/A
N/A
$2,346
Settled
No
polymarket

<0.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.6-1.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.0%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.2-1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$63
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether Eurozone year-over-year GDP growth in Q2 2026 will exceed 0.4%, based on seasonally adjusted data. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus stands at 99.0% for growth above this threshold. Resolution will be determined by the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release, which reports growth rates to one decimal point. Watch for the official Eurostat announcement on July 30, 2026, when the preliminary flash estimate for Q2 2026 will be published.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market references Q1 2026 GDP data instead of Q2 2026, creating a fundamental temporal mismatch with the event group definition. Additionally, Kalshi's 15 overlapping binary thresholds collapse into a single outcome, while Polymarket uses properly structured mutually exclusive brackets for Q2 2026.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group—they measure the wrong quarter. Polymarket is the only reliable venue for Q2 2026 Eurozone GDP growth exposure. Monitor the Eurostat release on July 30, 2026, and resolve based on the preliminary flash estimate reported to one decimal place.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All 15 conditions reference Q1 2026 YoY flash GDP and resolve to Yes if the value exceeds -0.6% (the minimum threshold). This makes all conditions logically redundant and measures the wrong quarter. Key quote: 'If Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Eight mutually exclusive bracket questions correctly target Q2 2026 YoY growth based on Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate released July 30, 2026. Brackets cover: <0.0%, 0.0-0.3%, 0.4-0.7%, 0.8-1.1%, 1.2-1.5%, 1.6-1.9%, and >=2.0%. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q2 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus expectations for second-quarter economic expansion in the Eurozone. The combined group has processed volume of $62,612 since inception, with recent 24-hour activity at $12,452. You can monitor how traders are pricing different growth scenarios, from subdued expansion to stronger recovery, and observe which outcomes attract the most liquidity and conviction across both platforms.

Key catalysts include European Central Bank monetary policy decisions, inflation trends, energy prices, and geopolitical developments affecting trade and investment. Flash PMI releases, employment data, and consumer confidence surveys in early 2026 will shape expectations for Q2 growth. Major fiscal policy announcements, Brexit-related trade impacts, and global economic slowdowns could also shift market odds. Real-time tracking of these indicators on the dashboard helps traders anticipate repricing before the official Q2 GDP release.