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European Central Bank rate decision in October
kalshi

What will the European Central Bank rate decision be in October?

Volume:
$71,702

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 9:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20,776
N/A
N/A
$8,810
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,480
N/A
N/A
$10,296
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,403
N/A
N/A
$15,170
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,305
N/A
N/A
$5,855
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,738
N/A
N/A
$1,689
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the European Central Bank's interest rate decision during its scheduled meeting, focusing on potential changes to its primary policy rate. The outcome depends on whether the bank raises, lowers, or maintains the rate by specific margins. Outcomes are determined solely by the official announcement made at the scheduled meeting.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the European Central Bank at its October Governing Council monetary policy meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; markets resolve to Yes only if the announced action exactly matches the specified basis point range for that market (Cut more than 25bps, Cut 1-25bps, Maintain current rate, Hike 1-25bps, or Hike more than 25bps). If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the “Maintain current rate” market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring outside of scheduled meetings do not affect resolution. The basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning that, for example, a 25bp cut would satisfy both the “Cut more than 25bps” and “Cut 1-25bps” markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the ECB rate decision market dashboard shows the current odds for the European Central Bank’s October rate move, along with price history and 24-hour volume of $2,846. It provides a live view of how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the likelihood of various rate outcomes, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy shifts.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rate decision announced by the European Central Bank will set the definitive result, matching the market’s listed options. Traders will see the settlement reflected automatically once official sources confirm the exact policy move.

Key signals include upcoming ECB speeches, Eurozone inflation releases, and employment data, all of which shape expectations for monetary tightening or easing. Any surprise comments from policymakers or shifts in global economic conditions can cause rapid re-pricing. Additionally, market reactions to related events like U.S. Fed policy decisions may influence this market as traders adjust their views on regional economic synchronization.