Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:17.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the EUR/USD exchange rate being higher or lower on September 28th. It displays the odds as a percentage chance, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. Users can also view the price history to see how the market has moved over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about the future direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a strong conviction about the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of opinions, this market consolidates collective intelligence into a single probability. While analysts may offer differing perspectives on factors influencing the exchange rate, this market represents a weighted average of many individual predictions. It's important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the EUR/USD exchange rate is higher or lower at the specified time. The final exchange rate will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or losses based on the final outcome of this market.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence the EUR/USD exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Key factors include interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, macroeconomic data releases such as inflation reports and GDP figures, and any unexpected geopolitical developments. Major news events, such as shifts in trade policy or political instability in either Europe or the United States, could also trigger substantial market movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.

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