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Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$90,066

Above 1.157

 - Kalshi

Above 1.157 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.157

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,922
N/A
N/A
$5,377
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.155

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,458
N/A
N/A
$2,541
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.153

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,176
N/A
N/A
$2,398
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.151

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,112
N/A
N/A
$1,572
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.159

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,885
N/A
N/A
$913
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.145

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,241
N/A
N/A
$3,241
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.149

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,604
N/A
N/A
$1,811
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.141

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,233
N/A
N/A
$2,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.143

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,011
N/A
N/A
$2,011
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.147

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,854
N/A
N/A
$1,011
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,018
N/A
N/A
$7,241
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.169

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,138
N/A
N/A
$2,412
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.171

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,330
N/A
N/A
$4,043
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.161

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,210
N/A
N/A
$770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.163

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,839
N/A
N/A
$2,421
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.173

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,244
N/A
N/A
$3,005
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.165

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,220
N/A
N/A
$2,263
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.167

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,844
N/A
N/A
$2,624
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.175

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,999
N/A
N/A
$1,583
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.177

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,715
N/A
N/A
$1,358
Settled
No
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 14?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group asks whether the Euro will be stronger or weaker against the US Dollar on September 14, 2026. Polymarket resolves based on whether the EUR/USD exchange rate increases or decreases compared to the prior day, while Kalshi uses a series of specific threshold levels for the EUR/USD exchange rate on September 11, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets have fundamentally different resolution criteria: Polymarket uses a day-over-day change, while Kalshi uses a fixed threshold on a different date.Hero tip: Treat these as distinct markets. Kalshi requires the EUR/USD to be above a specific level on September 11, 2026, while Polymarket depends on its movement relative to the previous day on September 14, 2026.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the EUR/USD exchange rate on September 14, 2026, is higher than the rate on the prior reference day, using Pyth data. Resolves to 'Down' if lower. Equal rates resolve 50-50.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the EUR/USD exchange rate is above a series of specific thresholds (ranging from 1.141 to 1.179) on September 11, 2026. Uses the opening candlestick at 5pm ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the EURUSD exchange rate's opening value at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution. The thresholds range incrementally from 1.141 to 1.179, allowing participants to evaluate various potential levels of the EURUSD rate.