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Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on July 13?
polymarket
kalshi

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:
$9,413

1.14000 to 1.14199

 - Kalshi

1.14000 to 1.14199 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

1.14000 to 1.14199

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$955
N/A
N/A
$846
Settled
Yes
kalshi

1.14800 to 1.14999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$1,130
Settled
No
kalshi

1.15200 to 1.15399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
$1,101
Settled
No
kalshi

1.13200 to 1.13399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,012
N/A
N/A
$1,007
Settled
No
kalshi

1.14200 to 1.14399

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$914
N/A
N/A
$152
Settled
No
kalshi

1.13600 to 1.13799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$782
N/A
N/A
$703
Settled
No
kalshi

1.15000 to 1.15199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$740
Settled
No
kalshi

1.13400 to 1.13599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
kalshi

1.15400 to 1.15599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
No
kalshi

1.13800 to 1.13999

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$377
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
No
kalshi

1.14600 to 1.14799

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

1.13000 to 1.13199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
$294
Settled
No
kalshi

1.15600 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
No
kalshi

1.12999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

1.14400 to 1.14599

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$68
Settled
No
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on July 13?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether the EUR/USD exchange rate moves up or down on July 13, 2026. Polymarket measures the change from the prior trading day's 5:00 PM ET price using Pyth data, while Kalshi resolves based on the 10 AM EDT opening price falling into one of 15 predefined price bands—all of which resolve to Yes, making Kalshi's market effectively non-binary.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally unresolvable as a binary. All 15 price bands (covering the entire realistic EUR/USD range) resolve to Yes, leaving no valid No outcome. Additionally, Polymarket and Kalshi use different settlement times (5:00 PM ET vs 10 AM EDT) and different comparison methodologies (day-over-day change vs absolute opening price level).Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi—the market is non-binary and unresolvable by design. Trade Polymarket for a true directional EUR/USD bet on July 13. Polymarket's logic is sound: compare the 5:00 PM ET Pyth price on July 13 to the prior trading day's 5:00 PM ET price. If you hold Kalshi, request clarification or cancellation from the platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down comparison using Pyth EUR/USD price at 5:00 PM ET on July 13 versus the prior trading day's 5:00 PM ET price. Resolves Up if current price >= prior price, otherwise Down. Includes fallback logic for missing data (uses most recent valid Pyth price prior to 5:00 PM ET, or most recent prior day if no data exists for July 13).
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on 10 AM EDT opening price on July 13, 2026. All 15 conditions resolve to Yes: prices below 1.13000, between 1.13000–1.13199, 1.13200–1.13399, 1.13400–1.13599, 1.13600–1.13799, 1.13800–1.13999, 1.14000–1.14199, 1.14200–1.14399, 1.14400–1.14599, 1.14600–1.14799, 1.14800–1.14999, 1.15000–1.15199, 1.15200–1.15399, 1.15400–1.15599, and above 1.15599 all resolve to Yes. No No outcome is defined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Pyth-published price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) at 5:00 PM ET on July 13, 2026 is higher than or equal to the Pyth-published price at 5:00 PM ET on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to the next most recent trading day. If no Pyth-published price is available at exactly 5:00 PM ET on a relevant day — whether due to normal feed timing, a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption preventing verification — the most recent valid Pyth-published price prior to that day's 5:00 PM ET cutoff will be used; if no valid Pyth price exists for that day at all, the most recent prior day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) price feed page: https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. UMA resolvers should verify against the Pyth-published prices for the relevant 5:00 PM ET timestamps.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the opening price of EUR/USD on July 13, 2026 at 10 AM EDT. The price range is divided into fifteen consecutive bands, each spanning 0.00200 dollars, beginning at 1.12999 and below and extending to 1.15600 and above. Each band represents a distinct outcome, and resolution occurs when the opening price falls within one of these defined ranges. The exact opening price at the specified time and date serves as the sole determinant for which outcome resolves affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi on the EUR/USD exchange rate market, tracking whether the euro will trade higher or lower against the US dollar on July 13, 2026. Traders on both venues place bets based on their outlook for currency movement, economic data, and central bank policy. The aggregated view shows consensus pricing across platforms, helping participants gauge the collective forecast. Combined volume across venues reflects overall market interest in this currency pair's near-term direction.

Prediction market prices reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating information faster than traditional analyst surveys. Unlike consensus forecasts, which rely on expert opinion and historical models, this market aggregates dispersed knowledge from participants with direct financial incentive to be accurate. Market odds can diverge from analyst consensus when new economic data, policy announcements, or geopolitical events shift trader expectations. Both approaches offer value: markets capture dynamic sentiment, while analyst forecasts provide structured fundamental analysis of currency drivers.

Major catalysts include European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation data, employment reports, and GDP releases from both regions. Geopolitical tensions, trade developments, and shifts in interest rate expectations can trigger sharp currency swings. Market participants monitor real-time economic calendars and central bank communications for clues on monetary policy divergence. Technical levels and carry-trade positioning also influence short-term volatility. Any surprise in economic data or policy guidance could shift trader positioning significantly before the July 13 resolution date.