TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
limitless

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

Oct 5, 2026, 10:30 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$64
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

30M+

 - Limitless

30M+ - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:06h:05m

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?: 30M+

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

30M+

Trade
96%
Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢
3¢
N/A
$31
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

33M+

Trade
87%
Yes 86.8¢No 13.3¢
5.5¢
N/A
$11
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

34M+

Trade
50%
Yes 50.2¢No 49.8¢
8.5¢
N/A
$8
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

36M+

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
0¢
N/A
$9
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

35M+

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
0¢
N/A
$6
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

31M+

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

32M+

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
limitless

37M+

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 6h 5m
Active
Total markets: 8

Description

On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of October 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-10”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for October 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data. Values will count regardless of any status flag (e.g. estimated, provisional). The figure will be used as published, without rounding. If Eurostat becomes permanently unavailable or has not published a qualifying figure for October 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the latest data available. The primary resolution source for this market will be Eurostat, specifically the nrg_stk_oilm dataset at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table. If the dataset is discontinued or restructured, the equivalent successor series published by Eurostat will be used. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes values in thousands of tonnes (e.g. 35M tonnes = 35,000 thousand tonnes). Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market. Note: Eurostat publishes monthly emergency oil stock data with a delay. The European Union aggregate is generally published approximately three months after the end of the reference month, once all Member States have reported (for example, data for June 2026 was the latest available as of October 1, 2026). Data for October 2026 is therefore expected to be published around late January or February 2027, and this market will remain unresolved until the publication of qualifying data.

Limitless

On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of October 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-10”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for October 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data. Values will count regardless of any status flag (e.g. estimated, provisional). The figure will be used as published, without rounding. If Eurostat becomes permanently unavailable or has not published a qualifying figure for October 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the latest data available. The primary resolution source for this market will be Eurostat, specifically the nrg_stk_oilm dataset at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table. If the dataset is discontinued or restructured, the equivalent successor series published by Eurostat will be used. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes values in thousands of tonnes (e.g. 35M tonnes = 35,000 thousand tonnes). Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market. Note: Eurostat publishes monthly emergency oil stock data with a delay. The European Union aggregate is generally published approximately three months after the end of the reference month, once all Member States have reported (for example, data for June 2026 was the latest available as of October 1, 2026). Data for October 2026 is therefore expected to be published around late January or February 2027, and this market will remain unresolved until the publication of qualifying data.

Frequently asked questions

On Limitless, the dashboard for the EU diesel stock market tracks the current odds of whether emergency diesel stocks will be depleted by the end of October 2026. You’ll find the top outcome currently favored by traders, as well as the total volume traded on this market, which is currently $64. The 24-hour volume is $0, indicating recent trading activity. This provides a real-time view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing their views on the likelihood of the EU depleting its emergency diesel stocks by the end of October 2026. It’s important to note that these predictions may differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on economic models and expert opinions. This market offers a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and reflecting real-time expectations about potential supply chain disruptions, geopolitical events, and energy policy changes that could impact diesel reserves. Comparing these outcomes provides a broader understanding of potential scenarios.

On Limitless, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether emergency diesel stocks will be depleted by the specified date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to the outcome. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by new information, geopolitical events, and changes in expectations regarding energy demand and supply. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on publicly available data regarding the levels of emergency diesel stocks held by EU member states at the end of October 2026. The outcome will be determined by whether those stocks have been depleted, as defined by official reports from relevant energy agencies and governmental bodies. The market will then be settled based on this verified information, reflecting the accuracy of predictions made by traders.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major geopolitical events impacting oil supply, such as conflicts in key producing regions, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in EU energy policy, particularly regarding fuel reserves or consumption targets, could also have a substantial effect. Unexpected economic downturns or surges in demand for diesel fuel, especially during peak seasons, could also shift the market. Finally, significant weather events disrupting transportation infrastructure could impact stock levels and influence trading activity in this market.