This market tracks whether Ethereum's price will close higher or lower on June 29, using Binance ETH/USDT pricing at noon ET as the reference point. Across Predict and Polymarket, the aggregated consensus shows 43.0% probability for the leading outcome. The resolution source is Binance's ETH/USDT spot market. Note that a Resolution Divergence Alert is active for this event group due to temporal scope mismatches across platforms. Watch the noon ET close on June 29 for the settlement reference point.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group is titled 'Ethereum Up or Down on June 29?' but contains markets with misaligned temporal scopes. Predict references Jun 27-28, while Polymarket references Jun 28-29. This creates confusion about which market actually settles the group's core question.Hero tip: Clarify the event group intent: if it should measure June 29 price action, only Polymarket qualifies. If Predict is intentional, rename the event group to 'Ethereum Up or Down: Jun 27-28 vs Jun 28-29' or split into separate groups. Traders should verify which date pair matches their thesis before entering positions.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Measures price movement from Jun 27 12:00 ET to Jun 28 12:00 ET using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle closes. Resolves Up if Jun 27 close is lower than Jun 28 close, Down if higher, 50-50 if equal.
Polymarket: Measures price movement from Jun 28 12:00 ET to Jun 29 12:00 ET using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle closes. Resolves Up if Jun 28 close is lower than Jun 29 close, Down if higher, 50-50 if equal.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

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