TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Ethereum Up or Down on June 26?

polymarket

predict

Ethereum Up or Down on June 26?

Volume:

$147,939

Ethereum Up or Down on June 26?

- Polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down on June 26?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$107,835

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Ethereum Up or Down on June 25?

N/A

N/A

—

$48

$40,104

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

These markets track whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on consecutive days using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close prices at noon ET. The predict platform market compares June 24 to June 25, while the polymarket compares June 26 to June 27, creating a temporal mismatch despite identical resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms measure price movement across different date pairs. Despite sharing identical resolution mechanics and the same data source (Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles), the temporal scope creates distinct settlement events.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are fungible. The predict market resolves based on Jun 24-25 price action, while polymarket resolves based on Jun 25-26 price action. If you hold positions on both, you are exposed to two separate daily price movements, not a hedge.

Critical divergence points:

predict: Market titled 'Ethereum Up or Down on June 25?' compares Jun 24 '26 12:00 ET close to Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET close. Resolves Up if Jun 24 < Jun 25, Down if Jun 24 > Jun 25, 50-50 if equal.
polymarket: Market titled 'Ethereum Up or Down on June 26?' compares Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET close to Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET close. Resolves Up if Jun 25 < Jun 26, Down if Jun 25 > Jun 26, 50-50 if equal.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real money at stake, making them a direct measure of trader conviction rather than a derivative of spot prices. On this market, the odds diverge from traditional technical analysis because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment, news flow, and macro catalysts that spot traders may not yet have priced in. Prediction markets often lead spot markets during high-volatility events, since participants are incentivized to forecast accurately. Comparing the current odds to your own price expectations can reveal whether the market is undervaluing or overvaluing the likelihood of an up or down move.

Polymarket and Predict operate under different market-making models, fee structures, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity depth, order-flow timing, and platform-specific incentives mean that the same outcome can trade at different probabilities across venues. Arbitrageurs typically exploit these spreads, but temporary misalignments persist due to withdrawal delays, platform friction, or regional user preferences. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify the true consensus odds and spot when one venue is lagging behind the other.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic data releases, Bitcoin price action, and Ethereum-specific developments such as network upgrades or large exchange flows. Sudden shifts in Fed policy or risk sentiment can trigger rapid repricing across crypto markets. Large whale transactions, exchange inflows or outflows, and social media momentum can also swing trader conviction in either direction. Monitoring on-chain metrics, derivatives funding rates, and news flow will help you anticipate moves before they're fully reflected in this market's odds.