Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Odds & Prediction Markets

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price on Binance (ETH/USDT pair) moves up or down between June 12, 2026 at noon ET and June 13, 2026 at noon ET. Resolution compares the closing price of the 1-minute candle at the exact noon timestamp on each day, with an explicit tie-breaker for price equality.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms present identical resolution criteria, baseline reference point, comparison methodology, tie-breaker rule, and exclusive data source without any divergence in logic or interpretation.Primary resolution logic: Binance ETH/USDT pair, 1-minute candle close prices, accessed via https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with 1m and Candles view selected

Core resolution logic:

Establish baseline: close price of the 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT on June 12, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
Establish comparison: close price of the 1-minute candle for ETH/USDT on June 13, 2026 at 12:00 ET (noon)
If June 13 close > June 12 close, resolve to UP
If June 13 close < June 12 close, resolve to DOWN
If June 13 close = June 12 close exactly, resolve 50-50 split
Use only Binance ETH/USDT data; exclude all other exchanges and trading pairs

Edge cases & clarifications:

Price Equality: If the close prices are exactly equal on both dates, the market resolves 50-50 with equal payout to both UP and DOWN positions
Data Source Unavailability: Resolution depends on Binance data availability at the specified timestamps; if Binance is offline or data is corrupted, resolution may be delayed pending data recovery
Timezone Precision: All timestamps are in ET (Eastern Time); resolvers must confirm correct timezone conversion and use the exact noon ET candle close, not any other time or timezone
Candle Selection: Resolution requires 1-minute candles with Candles view selected on Binance; any other candle interval or view setting would produce incorrect data

Timing: Resolution occurs after the close of the 1-minute candle at June 13, 2026 12:00 ET, when both baseline and comparison prices are finalized and available on BinanceOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jun 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Predict, offering a unified view of how the crypto community expects ETH to move on June 13. This dashboard consolidates order flow and pricing from both platforms, letting you see whether consensus leans toward an up or down outcome. By tracking the same event across multiple venues, you gain insight into whether one platform's traders are more bullish or bearish than the other, and whether conviction is building or weakening as the date approaches.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price splits. Polymarket and Predict may also have different user bases with varying risk appetites or information access. Market-making incentives, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific trading tools can all influence where traders are willing to buy or sell. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit them, but during low-volume periods or breaking news, spreads can widen noticeably.

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