TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 12:00 PM EST
Predict
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot price expectations are based on current market conditions and technical analysis. This market aggregates the views of many participants betting real capital, which often incorporates forward-looking sentiment that spot prices alone may not capture. Comparing the implied probability here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in more bullish or bearish momentum than conventional indicators suggest.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Ethereum's price closes above or below its opening level on that date. Once the market closes, the winning outcome is locked in and traders' positions are settled according to the final result.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency, macroeconomic data releases, Bitcoin price movements, and Ethereum-specific developments such as network upgrades or staking changes. Market-wide sentiment shifts driven by central bank policy, inflation reports, or geopolitical events can also sway this market significantly. Technical levels, options expiry dates, and large whale trades may trigger sharp repricing, so monitoring both on-chain metrics and broader financial news is essential for anticipating swings.