TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Ethereum Up or Down on July 10?

predict

polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down on July 10?

Volume:

$90,821

Ethereum Up or Down on July 10?

- Polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down on July 10? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down on July 10?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$51,499

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Ethereum Up or Down on July 8?

N/A

N/A

—

$341

$39,323

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

These markets track whether Ethereum's price on Binance ETH/USDT closes higher or lower on specific dates. The predict platform market compares July 7 noon to July 8 noon prices, while the polymarket compares July 9 noon to July 10 noon prices—creating two separate events with different underlying comparison periods.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group title references July 10, but the predict platform market compares July 7-8 prices while polymarket compares July 9-10 prices. This is a 2-day temporal offset creating two distinct underlying events.Hero tip: These markets track different date ranges. Predict resolves on July 8 (comparing Jul 7 noon to Jul 8 noon), while Polymarket resolves on July 10 (comparing Jul 9 noon to Jul 10 noon). They are not interchangeable. Choose your platform based on which date's price movement you want to predict.

Critical divergence points:

predict: Resolves based on price comparison between July 7 12:00 ET and July 8 12:00 ET. Resolves to Up if Jul 7 close is lower than Jul 8 close, Down if higher, 50-50 if equal. Source: Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles.
polymarket: Resolves based on price comparison between July 9 12:00 ET and July 10 12:00 ET. Resolves to Up if Jul 9 close is lower than Jul 10 close, Down if higher, 50-50 if equal. Source: Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Predict, offering a unified view of how the crypto community expects ETH to move on July 10. Traders on both platforms are pricing in their conviction about whether Ethereum will close higher or lower on that date. The dashboard displays real-time odds, cumulative trading volume of $90,821, and the consensus lean across venues. This cross-platform lens reveals whether prediction markets show strong conviction or near-parity on directional movement, helping participants gauge collective sentiment beyond any single exchange.

Polymarket and Predict serve different trader bases, fee structures, and liquidity depths, which naturally creates price divergence. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Regulatory geography, user interface design, and settlement confidence also play a role—traders on one platform may have stronger conviction or better information flow than the other. Arbitrage opportunities between venues are often fleeting because bridging capital across platforms incurs slippage and time costs. Monitoring both prices helps identify which venue's participants are more confident and where smart money may be positioning ahead of the July 10 close.

Major catalysts include Ethereum network upgrades, regulatory announcements, macroeconomic data (inflation, Fed policy), Bitcoin momentum, and large on-chain transactions or whale activity. Technical levels and support/resistance zones often trigger algorithmic trading and cascade moves. Sentiment shifts from social media, institutional adoption news, or competing layer-2 developments can also sway odds. Volatility spikes in traditional markets sometimes correlate with crypto repricing. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate which way this market may lean as July 10 approaches.