TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 28 distinct price thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and incompatible resolution structures (binary directional vs. 28 discrete price levels). The markets cannot be treated as equivalent or fungible.Hero Tip:
These are two separate markets with different underlying assets and mechanics. Polymarket bets on spot momentum; Kalshi bets on index levels. Basis risk exists between them. Confirm your intended exposure before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on whether Binance ETH/USDT 1H candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Uses live spot exchange data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
28 separate Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1249.99 to 2809.99). Uses institutional benchmark index data. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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