TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET

Volume:
$240,386

$2,090 or above

 - Kalshi

$2,090 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 31, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,090 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72,029
N/A
N/A
$39,181
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,493
N/A
N/A
$31,967
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,970 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,936
N/A
N/A
$7,615
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,010 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,818
N/A
N/A
$3,708
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,930 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,012
N/A
N/A
$1,707
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,890 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$485
N/A
N/A
$415
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,810 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,850 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$28
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,501
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,130 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,869
N/A
N/A
$10,452
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,170 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,197
N/A
N/A
$3,621
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,210 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,875
N/A
N/A
$2,870
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,690 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$567
N/A
N/A
$567
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,810 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,330 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT spot price data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 28 distinct price thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and incompatible resolution structures (binary directional vs. 28 discrete price levels). The markets cannot be treated as equivalent or fungible.Hero tip: These are two separate markets with different underlying assets and mechanics. Polymarket bets on spot momentum; Kalshi bets on index levels. Basis risk exists between them. Confirm your intended exposure before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on whether Binance ETH/USDT 1H candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Uses live spot exchange data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 28 separate Yes/No markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1249.99 to 2809.99). Uses institutional benchmark index data. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.