TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 46 separate price-level thresholds derived from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI). These platforms will produce different outcomes for the same market event.Hero Tip:
If you trade this event across both platforms, understand that Polymarket's binary up/down outcome (based on candle comparison) will NOT necessarily align with Kalshi's yes/no outcomes (based on ERTI price levels). A Polymarket 'Up' result does not guarantee a Kalshi 'Yes' on any specific threshold. Arbitrage risk is high due to source and methodology divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price comparison at 5 PM ET on March 27. Market resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Uses a single binary comparison logic with Binance as the exclusive source: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on March 27, 2026, measured against 46 separate price thresholds (ranging from 1149.99 to 3109.99). Each threshold is a separate yes/no resolution condition. Uses ERTI as the exclusive source: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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