TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET

Volume:
$431,297

$1,950 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,950 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 27, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,950 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,933
N/A
N/A
$12,826
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,910 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,664
N/A
N/A
$6,817
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,870 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,983
N/A
N/A
$2,918
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,150 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,952
N/A
N/A
$2,952
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,830 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,991
N/A
N/A
$1,116
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,790 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,278
N/A
N/A
$978
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,190 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,350 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,310 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,390 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,430 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,230 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,270 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,710 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$124
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,470 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,630 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,670 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,590 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,030 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,290
N/A
N/A
$46,434
Settled
No
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,990 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,592
N/A
N/A
$22,324
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,070 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,844
N/A
N/A
$23,271
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,110 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,206
N/A
N/A
$19,515
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 46 separate price-level thresholds derived from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI). These platforms will produce different outcomes for the same market event.Hero tip: If you trade this event across both platforms, understand that Polymarket's binary up/down outcome (based on candle comparison) will NOT necessarily align with Kalshi's yes/no outcomes (based on ERTI price levels). A Polymarket 'Up' result does not guarantee a Kalshi 'Yes' on any specific threshold. Arbitrage risk is high due to source and methodology divergence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price comparison at 5 PM ET on March 27. Market resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Uses a single binary comparison logic with Binance as the exclusive source: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on March 27, 2026, measured against 46 separate price thresholds (ranging from 1149.99 to 3109.99). Each threshold is a separate yes/no resolution condition. Uses ERTI as the exclusive source: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.