TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$45,153
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00PM-8:00PM ET on March 25), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at a single point in time (5:00PM EDT on March 25, 2026) against 34 different price thresholds. These are incompatible resolution frameworks that will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket measures directional price movement (up vs down) using Chainlink data, while Kalshi measures absolute price levels against multiple strike prices using a different index. A trader betting on both platforms could face conflicting outcomes if ETH price behavior differs between the two data sources or if the ERTI index diverges from Chainlink pricing during the resolution window.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement using Chainlink ETH/USD data. The market resolves YES (Up) if the Chainlink price at 8:00PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00PM ET on March 25, and NO (Down) otherwise. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on absolute price levels of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) measured at a single point (5:00PM EDT on March 25, 2026). The market contains 34 separate YES/NO conditions, each resolving YES if the 60-second average ERTI before 5:00PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1349.99 to 2909.99). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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