TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$82,944
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) by CF Benchmarks will trade above specific price thresholds during a 4-hour window on March 24, 2026. The settlement mechanism uses the simple 60-second average of ERTI prices immediately before 5:00 PM EDT as the official reference point. All 40 Kalshi markets resolve identically: YES if ERTI exceeds the stated threshold, NO otherwise.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and timing. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00PM-8:00PM ET on March 24), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at a single point in time (5:00PM EDT on March 24, 2026) against 40 different price thresholds. The platforms measure different indices, use different settlement times, and produce incompatible outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket tracks Chainlink's ETH/USD feed over 4 hours and resolves UP/DOWN based on price movement. Kalshi contains 40 separate binary markets, each with a different ERTI threshold at 5PM EDT. Even if Ethereum price moves in the same direction, the platforms may resolve differently due to source divergence (Chainlink vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and timing mismatch (4-hour window vs. single-point snapshot). Arbitrage is possible but requires careful threshold mapping.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price feed, comparing the price at 8:00PM ET to the price at 4:00PM ET on March 24. Market resolves UP if end price >= start price, DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to UP if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to DOWN. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at 5:00PM EDT on March 24, 2026, with 40 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second average ERTI before 5PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1199.99 to 2759.99). No single unified outcome; each market is independent. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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