TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00PM-8:00PM ET on March 22), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at a single point in time (5:00PM EDT on March 22, 2026) against 38 different price thresholds. The platforms measure different indices, use different timing, and produce incompatible outcomes.Hero Tip:
These markets are NOT equivalent bets. On Polymarket, you are betting whether ETH price goes up or down over a 4-hour window using Chainlink data. On Kalshi, you are betting whether ERTI exceeds one of 38 specific price levels at exactly 5:00PM EDT. A price movement that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source differences and timing misalignment. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison—YES if price at 8:00PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4:00PM ET on March 22. Uses a 4-hour price window and a single authoritative source: 'the resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at 5:00PM EDT on March 22, 2026, measured as the simple average of 60 seconds of ERTI data prior to that time. Contains 38 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold (ranging from 1349.99 to 2909.99). All resolve YES if ERTI exceeds their respective threshold: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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