TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$59,965
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 12, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream to compare end-of-period price against start-of-period price, while Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts tied to CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at 5:00 PM EDT, each with a different price threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Chainlink ETH/USD vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different time windows (4-hour range vs. single 5 PM snapshot), and different resolution mechanics (binary Up/Down vs. 40 threshold-based contracts). The markets are not directly comparable or hedgeable against each other.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket is a directional bet over 4 hours; Kalshi offers 40 granular threshold contracts at a single point in time. Verify which data source and timing window aligns with your trading thesis before entering positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison. Resolves Up if price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4:00 PM ET. Source: https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1199.99 to 2759.99). All contracts settle at the same moment (5 PM EDT) but measure different price levels. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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