TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$59,965

Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 13, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,093
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,040 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,196
N/A
N/A
$5,047
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,722
N/A
N/A
$4,754
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,960 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,094
N/A
N/A
$2,082
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$309
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,880 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$239
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,840 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,760 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,080 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,493
N/A
N/A
$4,715
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,120 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,747
N/A
N/A
$3,083
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,160 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,490
N/A
N/A
$1,473
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,200 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
$560
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,400 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$343
N/A
N/A
$343
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,440 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$230
N/A
N/A
$230
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,320 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,360 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,480 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
$176
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,240 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
$170
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,520 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,560 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$115
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,600 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$88
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,640 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$68
N/A
N/A
$68
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,680 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,280 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 12, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream to compare end-of-period price against start-of-period price, while Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts tied to CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at 5:00 PM EDT, each with a different price threshold.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Chainlink ETH/USD vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different time windows (4-hour range vs. single 5 PM snapshot), and different resolution mechanics (binary Up/Down vs. 40 threshold-based contracts). The markets are not directly comparable or hedgeable against each other.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. Polymarket is a directional bet over 4 hours; Kalshi offers 40 granular threshold contracts at a single point in time. Verify which data source and timing window aligns with your trading thesis before entering positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Chainlink ETH/USD price comparison. Resolves Up if price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4:00 PM ET. Source: https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 1199.99 to 2759.99). All contracts settle at the same moment (5 PM EDT) but measure different price levels. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.