TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will Ethereum be up at June 29, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$227,890

$1,590 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,590 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,590 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$40,096
N/A
N/A
$15,931
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,630
N/A
N/A
$6,063
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,518
N/A
N/A
$3,114
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,470 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$704
N/A
N/A
$597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,430 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$349
N/A
N/A
$349
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$990 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
$295
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,390 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,630 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73,040
N/A
N/A
$35,501
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,670 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,956
N/A
N/A
$46,123
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,710 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,059
N/A
N/A
$14,936
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,750 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,819
N/A
N/A
$12,761
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,790 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,916
N/A
N/A
$5,916
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,830 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$477
N/A
N/A
$477
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,910 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

$750 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$790 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$830 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$870 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$910 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$950 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,030 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,070 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,110 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,150 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on June 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time but employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create separate resolution paths. Polymarket uses Binance exchange OHLC data for a single binary outcome; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks ERTI index with 40 separate price-threshold markets. Price movements on one source may not correlate with the other.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different underlying data feeds. Polymarket resolves on Binance spot exchange data; Kalshi resolves on a third-party benchmark index. Binance and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge, especially during flash crashes or liquidity events. Confirm your position is on the correct platform and understand which data source you are exposed to.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close >= open; DOWN otherwise. Single outcome per event. Data source: Binance exchange OHLC for ETH/USDT pair.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific CF Benchmarks ERTI price threshold (ranging 749.99 to 2309.99). Each market resolves YES if 60-second ERTI average before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 29, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. The official final value is calculated as the mean of all 60 individual RTI prices sampled during the final minute before market expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds represent aggregated trader conviction about future price direction, distinct from current spot prices on exchanges. While spot markets reflect instantaneous supply and demand, this market prices forward expectations—what traders believe ETH will do by the resolution time. The odds can diverge from technical analysis or on-chain signals if traders weight different catalysts or time horizons differently. Comparing these odds to your own price outlook helps identify whether the market is overpricing or underpricing directional risk.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market structures, liquidity pools, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in trading fees, settlement timelines, and regulatory frameworks can also influence how each platform's traders value the same outcome. Arbitrageurs often exploit these spreads, but temporary divergences persist due to fragmented liquidity. Monitoring both platforms gives you a fuller picture of where the broader market truly stands on this event.

Macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and major crypto regulatory news typically drive significant ETH price moves. On-chain metrics like network activity, staking changes, and large whale transactions can also influence trader positioning. Broader market events—stock market volatility, geopolitical developments, or competing blockchain announcements—may reshape risk appetite for digital assets. Technical breakouts or breakdowns near key support and resistance levels often trigger rapid repricing as traders adjust their directional bets ahead of the resolution window.