TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
predict

Will Ethereum be up or down on June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$5,634

Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,231
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4PM ET

View
N/A
N/A
—
$3,002
$403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price will be higher at the end of a 4-hour window (4:00PM–8:00PM ET on June 29) compared to its price at the start of that window. Both platforms resolve based on a price comparison (close >= open or end >= start), but they source data from different providers: Binance spot market versus Chainlink oracle.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent data sources (Binance ETH/USDT spot market vs. Chainlink ETH/USD oracle feed) are used to settle functionally identical price-comparison events. While both measure the same directional outcome (up or down), the underlying price feeds may diverge during volatile or low-liquidity conditions.Hero tip: Monitor both Binance spot and Chainlink oracle prices during the event window. If a significant divergence emerges (e.g., Binance rallies while Chainlink lags), one market may resolve opposite to the other. Avoid over-leveraging on either platform without understanding the basis risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • predict: Uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle (4:00PM ET start). Resolves Up if close >= open. Data source: Binance spot market graph display. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • polymarket: Uses Chainlink ETH/USD oracle feed over the full 4:00PM–8:00PM ET window. Resolves Up if end price >= start price. Data source: Chainlink data stream. Quote: 'The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds encode collective trader expectations about future price movement, distinct from current spot prices. While spot markets reflect what ETH trades for right now, this market prices the probability of directional movement over the four-hour window. Traders incorporate technical levels, volatility forecasts, and macro catalysts into their bids and asks. If spot prices are stable but this market shows high conviction toward a move, it signals traders expect a catalyst or breakout. Conversely, flat odds near 50-50 suggest equilibrium and uncertainty. These markets often lead spot prices because they reward accurate directional calls, making them a forward-looking gauge of where informed traders believe Ethereum is headed.

Macroeconomic announcements—Federal Reserve commentary, inflation data, or stock market swings—often trigger sharp Ethereum moves within hours. Regulatory news, especially from the SEC or international bodies, can shift sentiment rapidly. Technical levels and support-resistance zones matter; if ETH approaches a key threshold, traders may front-run a breakout or bounce. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows or whale transactions can signal accumulation or distribution, moving odds. Competitor announcements or broader crypto sentiment shifts also ripple through this market. Finally, volatility spikes in traditional markets or geopolitical events can spill into crypto, reshaping trader conviction and pushing odds toward one outcome as new information arrives.