TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 4:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot price expectations are based on current market conditions and technical analysis. This market aggregates thousands of individual bets into a single probability, often capturing sentiment that lags or leads traditional price forecasts. When odds diverge significantly from what analysts or on-chain metrics suggest, it can signal either a contrarian opportunity or an emerging consensus shift that spot traders have not yet fully priced in.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of each outcome—Ethereum Up or Ethereum Down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; if more traders believe Ethereum will move up, the Up share price rises and the Down share price falls. This continuous auction mechanism ensures prices stay aligned with real-time sentiment and new information throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the four-hour trading window closes and Ethereum's price movement can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing Ethereum's price at the start of the window to its price at the end, with the result confirmed against credible public sources such as major exchange data or blockchain-verified pricing feeds. Traders who correctly predicted the direction receive their winnings once verification is complete.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and on-chain activity spikes that shift trader sentiment in real time. Network upgrades, large whale transactions, or shifts in Bitcoin momentum often trigger Ethereum volatility during short windows. Additionally, broader crypto market sentiment, traditional finance opens, and social media-driven trading surges can all influence this market's odds as traders reassess their conviction during the four-hour period.