TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 18, 1:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from spot price alone because they factor in volatility, upcoming events, and broader sentiment. While spot price shows the current market rate, odds here reveal forward-looking expectations about direction over the next several months. Comparing the two can highlight whether traders see upside or downside risk that isn't yet priced into the immediate market, offering insight into where informed participants expect Ethereum to head.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of each outcome—up or down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by the market; as more traders buy up shares, the odds shift higher, and vice versa. This continuous price discovery mechanism means the market adapts in real time to new information, news, and trader conviction, creating a dynamic reflection of expected Ethereum price direction.
This market resolves around Jun 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning side will be determined by whether Ethereum's price has moved up or down relative to the reference point at that time. Traders who backed the correct direction will receive their payout, while the losing side forfeits their stake.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, Bitcoin price action, network upgrades, and institutional adoption news. Unexpected volatility in traditional markets, central bank policy changes, or significant security incidents could also sway trader positioning. Technical developments, staking yield changes, and shifts in on-chain activity may influence conviction as well. Monitor crypto news outlets and on-chain metrics closely, as this market is highly responsive to both macro sentiment and Ethereum-specific developments leading up to settlement.