TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$116,870

$1,720 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,720 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 18, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,720 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,026
N/A
N/A
$9,001
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,680 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,224
N/A
N/A
$2,176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,640 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,362
N/A
N/A
$2,362
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,760 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,590
N/A
N/A
$21,099
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,800 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,901
N/A
N/A
$12,808
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,880 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,780
N/A
N/A
$10,130
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,840 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,685
N/A
N/A
$5,523
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,920 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,668
N/A
N/A
$3,668
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,960 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,161
N/A
N/A
$3,161
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,080 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,016
N/A
N/A
$1,016
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,120 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$877
N/A
N/A
$877
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,040 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$661
N/A
N/A
$661
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,000 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
$514
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,440 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,480 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,520 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,560 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,040 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,080 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,120 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,160 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,200 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 17, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary contracts, each tied to whether the CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average at 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold. Polymarket offers a single binary contract comparing Ethereum's price at the end of the window to its price at the beginning, using Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different data sources (CF Benchmarks ERTI vs. Chainlink ETH/USD), different measurement times (5 PM EDT snapshot vs. 4–8 PM ET window comparison), and different resolution logic (threshold breach vs. directional change). These differences create basis risk and prevent direct arbitrage.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket contracts will move in lockstep. Kalshi measures a single point-in-time ERTI value at 5 PM EDT; Polymarket measures Chainlink price direction over a 4-hour window ending at 8 PM ET. Price action between 5 PM and 8 PM, and differences between ERTI and Chainlink, can cause divergent outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary contracts, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold at 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Thresholds range from 999.99 to 2559.99. All contracts measure the same metric at the same instant.
  • Polymarket: Single binary contract resolving to Up if Chainlink ETH/USD price at end of 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET window is greater than or equal to price at beginning of window. Uses Chainlink data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd) as sole resolution source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 17, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the final averaged price. For example, the '$1,000 or above' outcome resolves Yes if the average exceeds $999.99, while '$1,040 or above' requires the average to exceed $1,039.99. CF Benchmarks' ERTI is the official price source, not alternative platforms like Google or Coinbase. Sixty individual ERTI prices are sampled in the final minute before expiration, and their arithmetic mean determines the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, traders monitor the Ethereum price movement market to forecast whether ETH will rise or fall during a specific four-hour window on June 17, 2026. This cross-platform dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across both venues, giving participants a unified view of consensus sentiment. The combined group volume reflects total capital deployed across all linked contracts tracking this event, helping traders gauge liquidity and conviction levels as the event window approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about directional movement, not absolute price levels. When this market shows strong odds favoring one direction, it signals that active participants expect momentum in that direction during the four-hour settlement window. Spot price expectations—based on technical analysis, news flow, and macro sentiment—often align with prediction odds, but divergences can emerge when traders price in tail risks or when sentiment shifts faster than spot markets react. Comparing both signals helps traders identify potential mispricings.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market microstructures, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, order flow, and risk management rules can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket may attract institutional traders seeking regulated venues, while Kalshi draws a broader global audience. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but during low-liquidity periods or rapid price moves, meaningful divergences can persist for hours, creating opportunities for cross-platform traders.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve announcements, Bitcoin price action, regulatory news affecting crypto markets, and macroeconomic data releases. Ethereum-specific developments—such as network upgrades, staking changes, or large exchange flows—can also shift trader positioning. Technical levels and options expiry on major derivatives platforms may influence spot volatility during the settlement window. Social media sentiment spikes and whale transaction activity are monitored closely by active traders seeking early signals of directional bias before the market closes.