TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 16, 10:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders believe will occur, which often diverges from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices in longer-term conviction about directional movement over a specific window. Comparing the implied probability here to analyst sentiment or technical levels can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in more bullish or bearish momentum than consensus expectations. This divergence is often where trading insight lies.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker mechanism, where buy and sell orders continuously update the probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see reflects the latest equilibrium between buyers and sellers, with each trade moving the odds incrementally. Liquidity depth determines how much slippage occurs on larger trades, so checking the order book helps you understand execution costs. Real-time price discovery means this market adjusts rapidly as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources. The binary result—up or down—is determined by comparing Ethereum's price at the resolution time to its level at market open. Once the event is verifiable from established market data, the platform finalizes the payout. Traders should note the exact timing to avoid last-minute surprises.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, Bitcoin momentum, and Ethereum-specific developments like network upgrades or ecosystem news. Broader crypto sentiment, central bank policy signals, and institutional adoption headlines can also swing odds significantly. Technical levels and on-chain metrics may influence trader positioning in the final hours. Monitoring news flow and social sentiment helps you anticipate sharp moves before they're fully priced in.