TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$157,501

$1,780 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,780 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,780 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,599
N/A
N/A
$15,308
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,740 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,534
N/A
N/A
$14,482
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,264
N/A
N/A
$4,556
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,660 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,523
N/A
N/A
$1,337
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,620 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$835
N/A
N/A
$835
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,580 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,820 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,134
N/A
N/A
$30,365
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,860 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,832
N/A
N/A
$24,719
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,900 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,836
N/A
N/A
$3,497
Settled
No
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,940 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,749
N/A
N/A
$2,689
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,980 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,926
N/A
N/A
$1,926
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,060 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

$900 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$940 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$980 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,020 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,060 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,100 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,140 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,180 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,220 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,260 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,300 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 16, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets, each with a different price threshold measured at 5 PM EDT via CF Benchmarks' ERTI index. Polymarket offers a single binary market comparing Ethereum's price at the start versus end of the window using Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create incompatible resolution criteria. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks ERTI at a single timestamp (5 PM EDT); Polymarket uses Chainlink ETH/USD across a 4-hour range (4 PM–8 PM ET).Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's 40 markets are threshold-based snapshots; Polymarket is directional. ERTI and Chainlink may diverge. Monitor both sources and account for timing differences.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) exceeds a specific threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Thresholds range from 899.99 to 2459.99. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market resolving to Up if Chainlink's ETH/USD price at the end of the 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) prices collected before 5 PM EDT on June 16, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with thresholds ranging from $900 to $2,460 in $40 increments. The official price is determined by averaging all 60 ERTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. CF Benchmarks' ERTI is the authoritative data source for this market; prices from other sources like Google or Coinbase may differ and should not be used for resolution purposes.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether ETH will move up or down during a specific four-hour window. This market reflects collective sentiment from thousands of participants pricing in technical levels, macro catalysts, and intraday volatility. Cross-platform tracking reveals how different market microstructures and user bases converge on similar or divergent probabilities, offering a composite view of short-term directional conviction. The dashboard surfaces the leading outcome, current odds, and trading activity to help you gauge market confidence before the event closes.

Prediction market odds reflect trader willingness to stake capital on a specific outcome, which often diverges from passive spot price momentum. While spot markets react instantly to news and order flow, prediction markets embed forward-looking conviction and risk appetite. Odds on this market compress or expand based on new information, leverage positioning, and sentiment shifts—not just price direction. A rising probability for an up move doesn't guarantee spot price gains; it signals that traders collectively believe upside is more likely than downside over the four-hour window. Comparing these odds to technical levels and volatility expectations can reveal edge.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user demographics, which naturally produces pricing divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's binary contract mechanics and Polymarket's AMM-style liquidity pools incentivize different trading strategies and risk management approaches. Arbitrage friction—withdrawal delays, slippage, and platform-specific costs—prevents instant convergence. Additionally, each platform attracts traders with distinct time horizons and information sets, so consensus on the same event can lag by several percentage points. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money is rotating and which platform is pricing in fresher signals.

Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve commentary, inflation data, or equity market swings—often drive intraday crypto volatility and shift odds sharply. On-chain activity, such as large whale transfers or exchange inflows, can signal accumulation or distribution pressure. Technical levels and options expiry clustering may trigger algorithmic trading or gamma hedging that amplifies moves. Regulatory news, platform outages, or correlated asset weakness (equities, commodities) can cascade into Ethereum selling. Finally, competing prediction market updates and social sentiment spikes can compress odds as traders frontrun consensus shifts. Monitoring these channels in real time helps you anticipate odds swings before they're priced in.