TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$74,761

$1,650 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,650 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,890
N/A
N/A
$11,471
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,662
N/A
N/A
$1,540
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$597
N/A
N/A
$597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,010 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,090 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,130 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,170 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,210 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,330 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,501
N/A
N/A
$14,385
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,320
N/A
N/A
$7,637
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,356
N/A
N/A
$2,979
Settled
No
kalshi

$850 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$890 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$930 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$970 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 14, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a different price threshold measured via CF Benchmarks' ERTI at 5 PM EDT. Polymarket offers a single binary market comparing Ethereum's price at the start versus end of the window using Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different data sources (CF Benchmarks ERTI vs. Chainlink ETH/USD), different measurement methodologies (single 5 PM snapshot vs. start-to-end comparison), and different time windows (5 PM only vs. 4 PM to 8 PM). These differences create independent resolution paths that may produce conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate markets with uncorrelated resolution logic. Kalshi's 40 markets are threshold ladders on a single mid-window snapshot; Polymarket is a directional bet on the full 4-hour window. Price movement patterns and volatility during the window will affect them differently. Monitor both data sources independently and do not hedge one against the other without accounting for the structural divergence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific ERTI price threshold. All measure the simple 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at exactly 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. Thresholds range from 849.99 to 2409.99. Each market resolves Yes if ERTI exceeds its threshold, No otherwise. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single binary market comparing Ethereum price at the start (4:00 PM ET) to the end (8:00 PM ET) of the specified window. Uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream as the authoritative source. Resolves Up if end price >= start price, Down otherwise. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. The official price is calculated by taking the average of all 60 RTI prices captured in that final minute. Each outcome threshold is evaluated independently—if the average price exceeds a given threshold (e.g., 849.99 for the $850 outcome), that outcome resolves to Yes. Multiple outcomes may resolve to Yes if the final price exceeds multiple thresholds. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative data source; prices from other platforms like Google or Coinbase are for reference only.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, traders monitor the Ethereum price movement market across a synchronized four-hour window on June 14, 2026. This aggregated view captures real-time odds from both platforms, letting you see whether the consensus leans toward price appreciation or decline during that specific interval. Cross-platform tracking reveals how different market microstructures and trader bases price the same directional bet, with aggregate volume and individual platform odds displayed side by side. The dashboard consolidates these signals into a unified view, helping traders spot divergences and assess conviction across venues.

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, not current spot levels. On this market, odds represent the collective probability that Ethereum will move up or down during the four-hour window, shaped by technical analysis, macro sentiment, and event catalysts. Spot price expectations are typically derived from order-book depth and recent volatility, whereas prediction odds incorporate forward-looking uncertainty. A high probability on one side signals strong trader positioning but does not guarantee spot price alignment; markets can reprice sharply if new information emerges or if liquidations cascade through leveraged positions.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market rules, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-matching engine may attract institutional flow, while Polymarket's design appeals to retail traders and crypto-native participants. Liquidity depth, settlement timing, and risk tolerance also vary between venues. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but during volatile windows or low-liquidity periods, meaningful divergences can persist. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify mispricings and choose the venue best aligned with your risk profile.

Macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, and Bitcoin price action are primary catalysts for Ethereum directional moves. Regulatory news, major exchange listings, or protocol upgrades can shift sentiment sharply. On-chain metrics like whale accumulation or exchange inflows may signal accumulation or distribution pressure. Technical levels and options expiry around the resolution window can amplify volatility. Liquidation cascades on leveraged platforms often trigger rapid repricing. Monitoring social sentiment, funding rates, and order-book imbalances in the hours leading up to 8:00 PM ET will help you anticipate momentum shifts and adjust your position accordingly.