TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$74,867

$1,650 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,650 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,369
N/A
N/A
$6,800
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$7,601
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,271
N/A
N/A
$4,278
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$925
N/A
N/A
$925
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
$408
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,624
N/A
N/A
$15,486
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,512
N/A
N/A
$9,265
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,157
N/A
N/A
$8,743
Settled
No
kalshi

$850 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$890 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$930 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$970 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,010 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,050 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,090 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,130 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,170 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,210 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,330 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on June 13, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 separate binary markets, each tied to whether the CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average at 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold. Polymarket offers a single directional market comparing Ethereum's price at the end of the window to its price at the beginning, using Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different price indices (CF Benchmarks ERTI vs. Chainlink ETH/USD), different measurement methodologies (point-in-time index average vs. directional price comparison), and different settlement windows (5 PM EDT snapshot vs. 4-hour directional move). These differences create basis risk and prevent direct market equivalence.Hero tip: Do not treat Kalshi and Polymarket markets as fungible or hedgeable against each other. Kalshi's 40 markets all resolve on ERTI at 5 PM EDT only; Polymarket resolves on Chainlink's directional move from 4 PM to 8 PM ET. A price that is up from 4 PM to 8 PM may not match ERTI levels at 5 PM, and vice versa. Choose your platform based on which data source and time methodology matches your market view.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 849.99 to 2409.99) at exactly 5 PM EDT on June 13, 2026. All markets measure a single point-in-time snapshot, not directional movement. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Single directional market resolving UP if Ethereum price at the end of the 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning. Uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream as the exclusive resolution source. Measures price movement across the full 4-hour window, not a point-in-time index. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down. The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on June 13, 2026. The official price is calculated by taking the average of all 60 RTI prices captured in the final minute before expiration. Each outcome threshold is evaluated independently against this averaged price, with outcomes resolving Yes if the average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., above $849.99 for the $850 outcome, above $889.99 for the $890 outcome, etc.). CF Benchmarks' RTI is used rather than other price sources like Google or Coinbase to ensure consistency and accuracy in price determination.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether ETH will move up or down during a specific four-hour window. This market reflects collective sentiment from both platforms, with current aggregate activity showing meaningful participation. By tracking the same directional question across multiple venues, the dashboard reveals how different market microstructures and trader bases converge on—or diverge from—a unified price signal, giving you a cross-platform view of Ethereum momentum expectations.

Prediction market odds represent trader beliefs about future price direction, not current spot prices. On this market, odds reflect the probability traders assign to an up or down move, which may differ from technical analysis or on-chain metrics. Spot price reflects only the present moment; prediction odds embed forward-looking sentiment, volatility expectations, and event risk. If major news or macro shifts occur before the resolution window, odds can shift sharply even if spot price remains stable. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect momentum or consolidation.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market designs, regulatory frameworks, and trader demographics, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi uses binary contract mechanics with defined settlement, while Polymarket uses an AMM-style model where liquidity depth and slippage vary. User bases also differ: institutional traders may favor one platform, while retail participation concentrates elsewhere. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at different implied probabilities, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve announcements, Bitcoin volatility, Ethereum network upgrades or security news, and macroeconomic data releases. Regulatory headlines—especially from the SEC or international bodies—can trigger sharp repricing. On-chain metrics like whale transactions or exchange inflows may signal institutional positioning. Stablecoin flows and derivatives funding rates also influence short-term momentum. Any unexpected geopolitical event or tech sector shock during the four-hour window could reverse trader positioning quickly. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate directional shifts before they're fully priced in.