TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET

Volume:
$205,341

$1,650 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,650 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$33,586
N/A
N/A
$19,275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,026
N/A
N/A
$11,665
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,654
N/A
N/A
$2,923
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,852
N/A
N/A
$4,071
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,979
N/A
N/A
$9,762
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,328
N/A
N/A
$3,145
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,583
N/A
N/A
$2,500
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$144
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
$79
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$690 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$890 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$930 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$970 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,733
N/A
N/A
$12,675
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,345
N/A
N/A
$6,663
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,781
N/A
N/A
$6,089
Settled
No
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$6,208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,810 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,554
N/A
N/A
$3,651
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,890 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,940
N/A
N/A
$1,606
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,970 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,403
N/A
N/A
$2,403
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,850 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,363
N/A
N/A
$2,263
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,090 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,561
N/A
N/A
$1,561
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,010 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,385
N/A
N/A
$1,357
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on June 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT with 50 different price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close comparison. The two platforms employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies to determine the same directional outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket employ incompatible data sources (CF Benchmarks ERTI vs. Binance ETH/USDT), different time aggregation methods (60-second average vs. 1-hour candle), and conflicting resolution structures (50 Yes thresholds with no explicit No outcome vs. binary Up/Down comparison). This creates a fundamental logical contradiction that makes unified resolution impossible.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's resolution logic is incomplete—it defines 50 Yes conditions but provides no explicit No condition, creating ambiguity. Polymarket's binary candle logic is clear but uses Binance data. Before trading, confirm with Kalshi whether the market resolves No if ERTI falls below the lowest threshold (649.99), and verify that CF Benchmarks ERTI and Binance ETH/USDT will track closely enough to avoid divergent outcomes. Consider the arbitrage risk if one platform resolves Up and the other cannot resolve or resolves Down.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Defines 50 separate Yes conditions tied to price thresholds ranging from 649.99 to 2609.99. No explicit No condition is stated. Resolution logic: If ERTI average exceeds any threshold, market resolves Yes. Ambiguity: What happens if ERTI is below 649.99?
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves to Up if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 12; otherwise resolves Down. Binary outcome with explicit conditions for both Up and Down. Source: Binance ETH/USDT pair only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026. The official final value is calculated by averaging all 60 RTI prices collected at expiration. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the averaged price exceeds its corresponding threshold. CF Benchmarks' ERTI serves as the definitive price source for this market, independent of other cryptocurrency price data providers.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET event across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the consensus probability that Ethereum's price will move in a specified direction by the resolution timestamp. You can monitor live odds shifts, cumulative trading volume across platforms, and compare how different prediction markets are pricing the same outcome. This cross-platform view helps traders identify arbitrage opportunities and gauge the collective market conviction on Ethereum's near-term price action.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective belief about Ethereum's price direction by June 12, 5PM ET, independent of current spot price. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, prediction markets embed forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk pricing. The odds on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge from what spot traders expect because prediction markets account for volatility, funding costs, and longer-term conviction. Comparing these odds to technical levels and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish or bearish catalysts ahead of resolution.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases with distinct liquidity pools, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with tighter position limits, while Polymarket operates on Polygon with higher leverage and lower barriers to entry. These structural differences can cause temporary price gaps as arbitrageurs work to align odds. Additionally, each platform's user demographics and risk appetite influence how they price Ethereum's directional move, creating opportunities for traders to exploit spreads between the two venues.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, Bitcoin price movements, Ethereum network upgrades or security incidents, and macroeconomic data releases. Regulatory news—particularly from the SEC or international authorities—can trigger sharp directional moves. On-chain metrics such as exchange inflows, staking changes, and developer activity may influence trader sentiment. Additionally, broader crypto market sentiment, altcoin performance, and institutional adoption announcements can shift Ethereum's price trajectory. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders adjust positions ahead of the June 12, 5PM ET resolution window.