TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.1b

24H VOL:

$217,487,446

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,300,303,450

498,643

Markets across

13,761

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,763

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA

Dashboards

Trending

Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET

Name: Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET
Start: 2026-04-10T20:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-04-17T22:00:00.000Z

Volume:

$337,458

Markets

Outcome

Chance %

Price

Liquidity

Volume

24h

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) as the settlement source with 50 binary price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. The markets measure fundamentally different things: absolute price levels vs. directional movement.

Hero Tip:

If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on whether ETH's 60-second average (via ERTI) exceeds specific price points. On Polymarket, you are betting only on whether the 1-hour candle closes higher than it opens, regardless of absolute price. These can diverge: ETH could close up on Binance but still fail all Kalshi thresholds if the ERTI average is too low, or vice versa.

Critical Divergence Points:

Kalshi: 50 separate binary markets, each resolving YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT on Apr 17, 2026 exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 1149.99 to 3109.99). Each threshold is independent; multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Settlement source: CF Benchmarks ERTI.
Polymarket: Single binary market resolving YES ('Up') if the ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 17. Resolves NO ('Down') otherwise. Settlement source: Binance ETH/USDT pair, 1H candle data.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.