TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, the implied probability from this market reflects what traders believe about the future price of Ethereum, and can be compared to expectations derived from traditional sources like analyst forecasts or futures contracts. If a significant difference exists between the prediction market odds and these other indicators, it could suggest the market is identifying information not yet fully priced into conventional assets. It's important to note that prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single expert's view. This market provides a unique perspective on the potential movement of Ethereum.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of Ethereum will fall within specific ranges on September 27. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by new information, changes in sentiment, and trading activity. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on discrepancies between their beliefs and the market price.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded on a widely recognized exchange at a specific time on September 27. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by the platform's standard procedures for verifying external data. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual Ethereum price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 27, 2026. Major news regarding Ethereum's development, such as successful upgrades or unexpected delays, could shift trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could also impact the price of Ethereum and, consequently, this market. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Ethereum, are another key catalyst. Finally, significant shifts in the overall cryptocurrency market, driven by events affecting Bitcoin or other major altcoins, could also move this market.