TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 12:18 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to typical spot price expectations derived from traditional financial analysis or polls. While analysts may offer price targets based on technical indicators or fundamental valuations, this market represents a weighted average of opinions from individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies between the market’s implied price and external forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. This provides a valuable signal for those seeking to understand the range of potential outcomes for Ethereum’s price, and how informed traders are positioning themselves.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future Ethereum price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will be above a certain level, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome. Conversely, if traders anticipate a lower price, those contracts become cheaper. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds closely align with the perceived probability of each potential outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded on a widely recognized exchange at the specified date and time. The exact price source will be determined by Polymarket’s methodology, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual Ethereum price at resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as successful upgrades or unexpected vulnerabilities, could influence trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors, including interest rate decisions, inflation data, and geopolitical events, could also impact the price of Ethereum and, consequently, this market. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly those impacting Ethereum, are likely to cause price fluctuations. Finally, significant shifts in market sentiment driven by influential figures or large-scale investments could also move the market.