TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Ethereum price on September 12?
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum price on September 12?

Volume:
$425,997

$2,500 or above

 - Kalshi

$2,500 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,500 or above

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52,445
N/A
N/A
$29,343
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,460 or above

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,731
N/A
N/A
$15,580
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,420 or above

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,131
N/A
N/A
$6,833
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,380 or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,454
N/A
N/A
$3,061
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2,500-2,600

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,300 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,912
N/A
N/A
$2,078
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,340 or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,791
N/A
N/A
$2,215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,260 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,464
N/A
N/A
$1,464
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,180 or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,220 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,540 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,580 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,620 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,660 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,740 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,780 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,820 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,860 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,940 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,980 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,020 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,060 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Ethereum’s price falling between $2,500 and $2,600 on September 12, 2026, as measured by the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates an 87.5% chance of this outcome, with a 12.0% probability that the price will be between $2,400 and $2,500. Resolution will be determined by Binance’s reported “Close” price for ETH/USDT. Keep an eye on the Ethereum price as we approach September 12, 2026, to see if it remains within these ranges as the betting period closes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge in their settlement value (ERTI vs. Binance ETH/USDT close price) and timing (September 11th vs. September 12th).Hero tip: Consider the potential for price discrepancies between exchanges and the time difference when trading these markets. Focus on markets that align with your price expectations for the specified exchange and time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the Binance ETH/USDT 'Close' price at 12:00 PM ET on September 12, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on a series of thresholds for the 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) at 5 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. Each threshold determines a 'Yes' outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) immediately preceding 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. For each individual market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold price (e.g., $1,500 or above, $1,540 or above, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined by collecting 60 ERTI prices during the final minute before expiration and averaging them. It is important to note that this benchmark may differ from consumer-facing prices shown on platforms like Google or Coinbase, and participants should rely solely on the CF Benchmarks ERTI for resolution purposes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the wisdom of the crowd and can offer a different perspective than traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices reflect current supply and demand, while this market aggregates forecasts about a future event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about future events impacting Ethereum, such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, or broader macroeconomic trends. The current volume of $425,997 suggests significant interest in this future price point, indicating a robust forecasting effort.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading mechanisms also play a role; Polymarket uses a continuous double auction, while Kalshi may employ different order types or fee structures. These variations can influence price discovery and result in differing probabilities for the same outcome, even with a combined 24-hour volume of $357,861.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in Ethereum's technology, such as successful upgrades or security breaches, would likely cause price fluctuations. Regulatory announcements from governments around the world regarding cryptocurrency could also have a substantial effect. Broader macroeconomic factors, like inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and global economic growth, will also play a role. Finally, significant news related to competing cryptocurrencies or the overall adoption of blockchain technology could move the market.