TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 12:13 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the Ethereum price on September 11. These odds represent what traders believe is the most likely outcome, based on their analysis of available information. Comparing this to spot price expectations from analysts and polls reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish than conventional wisdom suggests. If the market shows a significantly different outlook than, for example, a survey of financial analysts, it could indicate the market is pricing in factors not fully appreciated by those outside the prediction market ecosystem. This market provides a unique perspective on future price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different potential Ethereum price ranges. The price of each share reflects the implied probability of that price range being correct on September 11. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity are determined by the number of participants and the volume of trading activity, influencing how efficiently the market incorporates new information. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Ethereum price on September 11 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded by a widely recognized and trusted source. The specific price range that encompasses the actual Ethereum price at the specified time will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions based on the final result. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 11, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum’s ecosystem, such as successful upgrades or unexpected security vulnerabilities, could impact price expectations. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, could also influence investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Regulatory announcements relating to digital assets, particularly Ethereum, would likely cause substantial price movements. Unexpected news regarding major cryptocurrency exchanges or institutional adoption could also shift the market’s outlook, leading to changes in trading volume and implied probabilities.