TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum price on June 24?
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum price on June 24?

Volume:
$487,020

$1,530 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,530 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$48,312
N/A
N/A
$10,157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$34,001
N/A
N/A
$12,070
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,177
N/A
N/A
$14,923
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,133
N/A
N/A
$7,603
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1,600-1,700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,949
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,215
N/A
N/A
$6,215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$890 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,048
N/A
N/A
$1,048
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$930 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$515
N/A
N/A
$515
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$730 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$285
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$810 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$690 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$770 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,170 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$970 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$0
N/A
N/A
$0
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$83,024
N/A
N/A
$25,099
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$70,476
N/A
N/A
$30,098
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,170
N/A
N/A
$20,772
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,861
N/A
N/A
$9,351
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,764
N/A
N/A
$6,895
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,732
N/A
N/A
$4,866
Settled
No
polymarket

1,400-1,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1,800-1,900

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks Ethereum's price on June 24, 2026, across two platforms using different measurement methodologies and timestamps. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT closing price at noon ET on June 24, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on June 26—a different date and index entirely.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure Ethereum price using different indices (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different timestamps (June 24 noon ET vs. June 26 5 PM EDT), and different resolution methodologies (single candle close vs. 60-second average). The markets are not directly comparable.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket captures June 24 spot price; Kalshi captures June 26 benchmark price. Price movement between June 24 noon and June 26 5 PM will create divergence. Use Polymarket for near-term June 24 exposure and Kalshi for longer-dated June 26 index exposure. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if you model the 2-day drift and index basis separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on June 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET using Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close price. Offers 12 binary brackets ($1,300–$1,400, $1,400–$1,500, etc., plus extremes <$1,300 and >$2,200). Tie-breaking rule: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher bracket. Single point-in-time measurement.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on June 26, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second simple average. Offers 48 binary YES/NO markets at various price thresholds ($649.99, $689.99, $729.99, etc., up to $2,609.99). All markets are YES/NO; no bracket structure. Averaging methodology reduces volatility vs. spot.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds the stated criterion at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on where ETH will trade on June 24. Traders on each platform submit their price expectations, and the collective odds reflect the probability-weighted view of the crypto community. This cross-platform dashboard surfaces the leading outcome on each venue, allowing you to compare how different markets price the same event. By monitoring both platforms side by side, you gain insight into whether consensus is forming or if significant disagreement persists among professional and retail traders.

Prediction market odds encode trader beliefs about future spot prices, but they differ from current market rates in a crucial way: they reflect conditional probability, not live trading. On this market, odds represent the chance that Ethereum will land in a specific price band by the settlement date. Spot prices move continuously based on supply and demand; prediction odds adjust as new information arrives and traders update their conviction. A high probability in this market suggests traders expect that price range to materialize, but it does not guarantee spot price movement will follow that path. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in upside, downside, or stability.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different odds on the same event due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and settlement mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and time horizons, so their collective forecasts may diverge. Polymarket's outcome focuses on a specific price band, while Kalshi's frames the question around a particular timestamp and time zone. These structural differences mean the same underlying event is being priced slightly differently. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which framing resonates more strongly with active traders.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic shifts, and on-chain activity that reshape sentiment around Ethereum. A significant Bitcoin move often drags altcoins along, so BTC price action is a key watch. Ethereum-specific developments—such as network upgrades, staking changes, or large whale transactions—can trigger sharp repricing. Broader crypto market sentiment, driven by Fed policy or traditional finance volatility, influences this market's trajectory. As the resolution date approaches, traders will increasingly anchor to spot price levels, causing odds to tighten around the most likely outcome.