TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 8, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively expect Ethereum to be worth on the specified date, often diverging from current spot prices due to time value and volatility expectations. While spot markets reflect the price right now, this market embeds forward-looking sentiment about price movement, macroeconomic shifts, and on-chain developments over the coming months. Comparing the leading outcome to analyst forecasts and historical volatility patterns can highlight whether the crowd is pricing in bullish or bearish momentum.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares tied to specific price ranges or outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current leading outcome reflects the price level where the most trading activity and conviction have accumulated. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, share prices adjust in real time, with the market continuously repricing based on supply and demand dynamics among participants.
This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning prediction will be determined by comparing the actual Ethereum price on that date against the specified range or threshold. Once the resolution criteria are met and verified, traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets. On-chain metrics such as network activity, staking changes, and large whale transactions can also shift trader expectations. Additionally, developments in competing blockchain platforms, institutional adoption news, and geopolitical events influencing risk appetite may drive significant repricing as traders reassess their conviction ahead of the July 8 settlement date.