TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum price on July 17?
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum price on July 17?

Volume:
$93,361

$1,830 to 1,869.99

 - Kalshi

$1,830 to 1,869.99 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 17, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,830 to 1,869.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,828
N/A
N/A
$12,402
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1,800-1,900

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2,000-2,100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1,700-1,800

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,742
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1,900-2,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,870 to 1,909.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,326
N/A
N/A
$5,013
Settled
No
polymarket

1,600-1,700

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,414
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,790 to 1,829.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,411
N/A
N/A
$1,914
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,910 to 1,949.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,286
N/A
N/A
$3,664
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,750 to 1,789.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,589
N/A
N/A
$1,735
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,950 to 1,989.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,997
N/A
N/A
$1,953
Settled
No
polymarket

1,500-1,600

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1,300-1,400

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,019
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<1,300

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,710 to 1,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$986
N/A
N/A
$985
Settled
No
polymarket

>2,200

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2,100-2,200

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$630
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1,400-1,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,670 to 1,709.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$790 to 829.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
$98
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,590 to 1,629.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,550 to 1,589.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,510 to 1,549.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

$870 to 909.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,630 to 1,669.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This event group tracks the price of Ethereum on July 17, 2026, across two prediction platforms using different price indices and settlement times. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT spot price at noon ET, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Both platforms partition the price range into brackets to allow granular outcome prediction.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price indices (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and two different settlement times (12:00 PM ET vs. 5 PM EDT) create non-equivalent resolution criteria. The price ranges and bracket structures also differ significantly.Hero tip: These markets measure different things at different times. Polymarket captures intraday spot price at noon; Kalshi captures a 60-second index average at 5 PM. Price movements between noon and 5 PM, plus index methodology differences, will cause divergent outcomes. Treat as separate bets, not hedges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binance ETH/USDT spot price at 12:00 PM ET on July 17. Twelve binary brackets from <$1,300 to >$2,200 in $100 increments. Exact boundary values resolve to the higher bracket. Resolution source: Binance 1-minute candle close at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.
  • Kalshi: CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. Fifty binary brackets from <790 to >2709.99 in $40 increments. Each bracket resolves independently to Yes. Resolution source: CF Benchmarks ERTI feed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 17, 2026. The price is divided into consecutive $40 ranges, spanning from below $790 to above $2,710. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on which range contains the averaged price at the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. This consistent $40 band structure provides clear price segmentation while maintaining granularity across the full expected price distribution for ETH.

Frequently asked questions

The Ethereum price prediction market dashboard aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking real-time odds on where ETH will trade on July 17, 2026. This market lets participants forecast price movements by buying and selling shares tied to specific price ranges or thresholds. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities, trading volume, and consensus sentiment across both venues, giving you a unified view of how the crypto community is pricing Ethereum's near-term direction. Cross-platform tracking reveals whether consensus is building or diverging between major prediction exchanges.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific outcome, which often diverges from spot prices on crypto exchanges. While spot markets show the current price, this market prices the probability of Ethereum hitting certain levels by a future date. Traders use both sources to calibrate their views: spot prices reveal immediate supply and demand, while prediction odds embed longer-term sentiment and tail-risk hedging. Many participants monitor both simultaneously to identify mispricings or shifts in conviction across the two market types.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, and shifts in risk appetite that typically drive crypto volatility. Ethereum-specific developments—such as network upgrades, staking changes, or regulatory news—can also trigger sharp repricing. Geopolitical events, traditional market stress, and competing layer-one blockchain announcements may influence trader positioning. Large on-chain transactions, whale accumulation patterns, and derivative market positioning often precede directional moves, making them worth monitoring alongside broader sentiment shifts in the weeks leading up to resolution.