TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 10, 9:53 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect immediate buying and selling pressure, this market aggregates informed speculation about future Ethereum ETF flows. Discrepancies between the two can emerge due to differing assumptions about regulatory approvals, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Analyzing these differences can reveal valuable insights into the collective wisdom of the crowd and potential market inefficiencies.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of Ethereum ETF flows on September 9th. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution date, the more the price will likely converge towards either 0 or 100, depending on prevailing sentiment and new information.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the net flow of capital into Ethereum ETFs on September 9th is positive or negative. The exact data source used for verification will be determined by Polymarket and will be publicly available upon resolution. Traders should monitor news sources and official ETF reporting for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 9, 2026. Key catalysts include announcements from the SEC regarding Ethereum ETF approvals or delays, significant macroeconomic data releases that could impact investor risk appetite, and any unexpected news related to the Ethereum network itself. Positive news regarding ETF approvals would likely drive up the price of shares, while negative news or regulatory hurdles could cause them to fall. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.