TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 11:16 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, September 14, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, September 14, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst expectations regarding Ethereum ETF flows. While many analysts predict positive inflows, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. If spot price expectations shift dramatically, we may see a corresponding change in the price of contracts within this market. It's important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are fully priced into traditional markets, making them a valuable source of information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a 'Yes' contract reflects the probability of positive Ethereum ETF flows, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the event's likelihood. The current price indicates the market's aggregate expectation, influenced by various factors and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the net flow of funds into Ethereum ETFs on September 14 is positive or negative. Data from official sources tracking ETF flows will be used to determine the final outcome of this market. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the relevant data.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Sep 14, 2026. Official announcements from the SEC regarding Ethereum ETFs, any unexpected regulatory changes, or major news related to institutional investment in Ethereum could all cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies and macroeconomic factors influencing investment decisions could play a role. Positive or negative commentary from influential figures in the financial industry could also move the market, as traders react to new information and adjust their expectations.