TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 22, 6:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, June 22, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, June 22, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds on this market represent trader consensus on a discrete outcome, whereas spot prices reflect real-time supply and demand for the underlying asset. Unlike traditional markets, prediction odds isolate belief about a single future event rather than continuous valuation. Comparing this market's implied probability to analyst forecasts or historical flow patterns can reveal whether traders are pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert consensus. Divergence between the two signals potential mispricing or emerging information not yet reflected in conventional analysis.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker or order-book mechanism, with prices ranging from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%) based on buy and sell pressure. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract share represents a claim on one outcome, and the price of each reflects the collective belief of all active traders. Liquidity pools or limit orders determine the spread and execution cost, incentivizing arbitrage when prices drift from fair value. Real-time price discovery ensures this market remains responsive to breaking news and data releases.
This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether observed Ethereum ETF flows meet the specified threshold on that date. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. Early resolution is possible if the outcome becomes mathematically certain before the end date, allowing winners to exit or lock in gains ahead of the official close.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting Ethereum or spot ETF approvals, macroeconomic data influencing risk appetite, and Bitcoin or broader crypto market momentum. Institutional adoption news, staking yield changes, or technical developments on the Ethereum network can shift trader conviction. Intraday volatility around the resolution date itself—driven by market opens, options expiry, or surprise economic reports—often triggers sharp repricing. Monitoring social sentiment, on-chain metrics, and traditional finance flows into competing assets helps traders anticipate directional moves in this market.